From last year:
From last year:
Mental goo from yet another demented leftist.
He says it could be the beginning of the end or he could remain a factor for month..
It’s like saying almost certainly maybe?
Marcus writes for Wired, ergo, he’s a lib.
Speaking of Wired, I thought they were on the FR no-go list. Did that change?
Silver assimilates poll data into a model that attempts to compensate for bias in the polls. Since some polls are totally fabricated and manipulated to begin with, that’s like measuring things with a rubber ruler and then attempting to infer the actual truth from the resulting mess.
Yep.
He got lucky a couple times and election results confirmed his own biases. That proves nothing. Let him make some accurate predictions that don’t confirm his worldview!
Beat me to it - I was about to remind all that FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 2% to become the nominee.
His polls are tripe.
Several problems with Nate Slaver’s methodology:
1) uses historical precedent for polling agency accuracy and skew
Wouldn’t polling agencies modified their methodology over time to become more accurate?
Why does he discount the USC Dornsife and PPD tracking polls? Similar polls have been shown to be quite accurate over time.
2) Goes “conservative early, aggressive late”
This is clearly stated as part of part of the methodology.
They are willing to put much more weight on new polls.
But the swing over time in the polls is indicative of something not captured in his methodology.
3) The adjustment for poll skew is to the mean, not to the shape of the prior distribution of the sample representativeness
This is a departure from the Bayesian methodology he purports to follow.
To adjust for sampling skew, it is not enough to assume a normal distribution, but rather one would need to adjust the entire distribution.
But this could generate spurious results, such as what happened with the “unskewed” polls in 2012 that showed Romney could win.
It’s better not to adjust for poll skew at all.
I’m not saying Slaver is wrong, just that these are potential sources of error in his results.
He has the mental acumen to become a follower of islam. The retard is in full swing.
I didn’t realize Silver is gay. Geesh... another one...