Posted on 10/12/2016 8:24:26 PM PDT by Heff
I was just watching Pence on The Factor tonight, and Pence mentioned that Trump won races well beyond the numbers from the polls, or what Pence called "Over-polling". Can anyone point to any stats on Trump's poll numbers in the Primary, vs the Actuals?
He over polled in many of his primary wins...would have to go back and check each individual one but it’s true and more than a couple - starting with NH & SC
Probably a bunch of DEMs crossing over to vote for Trump since they wanted a weak-ass candidate to run against Hillary. /s
Any recollection on how much he outperformed the polls? Was it marginal or well beyond the 3 to 4 points they usually give? Thanks for the response.
If I remember correctly (don’t hold me to exact numbers) that NH was like 10% and SC was around the same +/- a point or 2
In the RCP primary averages, Trump over performed the average in 26 states. He underperformed in 10. Overall, he over performed by 2.6%
Greatest over performance was Indiana at 11.8%. PA was 8.5%. Greatest under performance was Kansas at 11.7%.
The NBC/WSJ poll was always used as a propaganda tool against him. They always tried to fabricate implosions that didn’t exist:
This poll had Trump collapsing and Cruz just 5 points behind. Actual results were Trump 10 points ahead of Rubio and Cruz in third.
NBC/WSJ polls always get repeated nonstop across NBC, FOX and MSNBC. Then the pundits create narratives to explain them, etc. All BS.
Thi
Between the NY and Indiana primaries, Trump over performed his poll numbers by an average of 9 points. Even in Wisconsin, one of his biggest defeats, he actually out performed his Real Clear Politics average by .6 of a point. In a few of the primaries he under performed his polling, but that was mostly in caucus states where polling is a little tougher.
I wonder how many of the 10 were questionable caucus states.
Not sure if this link will work or not. https://twitter.com/reactionarywasp/status/780230017208848384
O’Reilly.
Mrs Bill and her cabal seemed to be truly overjoyed at Trump winning the primaries. Their own perception of class got in their way. They underestimated or just totally misestimated him.
“RCP”
Lagging indicator, got 2012 wrong, etc.
Their job was easy in the republican primary because the poll numbers were stable. Polls in the RCP average taken 2 weeks before the vote were close to the actual result.
Many, including Kansas, I believe.
Oh Really??
Thank you! Late night Dyslexia
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