Posted on 10/04/2016 12:35:38 PM PDT by C19fan
Map at link
According to the 12Z GFS, it’s the Sea Islands, then Outer Banks / Cap Hatteras and out to sea.
Driving up the East Coast this weekend. Could be a lot of football games rescheduled.
They’ll probably have 40 mph winds in NJ and NYC. Time for wall to wall hurricane coverage/climate change is going to kill us, etc.
That track is a hell of a lot more than 40 mph winds.
European model moved more west to mid FL. SC low country will evacuate starting tomorrow. For those of you in this predicament...Take my advice and leave now (From my Katerina experience). There will be no power for days on end. Two interstate are out of Charleston. 26 to 20 or 77 and 95N/S along the coast. Guess where everyone will go? You will sit for hours.
Anything is possible given the weak steering currents and the intensity of Matthew, he has a mind of his own and I would take any forecasts of track or landfall with a healthy grain of salt, on the other hand, better safe than sorry, if you can move out of harm’s way I would not wait too long to do so whatever you hear about models and tracks because frankly confidence is low on all of this computer output in this case, the bottom line being that Matthew could quite easily show up almost anywhere from Miami to Boston in the next 3-5 days.
If it hugs the coastline, the storm will likely become disorganized and lose intensity as it goes up the coast. But, storms can sometimes gain new life over the warm, shallow sounds of NC. A lot of water soundside of the barrier islands there.
Checked weather.com at the present time they have it as a CAT 1 (90 mph) when it hits Jersey. (if it follows the path they are predicting right now)
There’s an excellent kennel there that raises field bred Labrador Retrievers. That’s the only thing I know about Windsor, NC.
Batten down those hatches
Rain and storm surge are probably bigger threats than wind damage with any coast-hugging storm, but bear in mind this cat-4 monster has moved steadily past mountains of Haiti and now Cuba and shows little if any sign of weakening, I will not be surprised if it regains cat-5 intensity tomorrow in the Bahamas and approaches either FL or SC as a cat-4. Then if it starts moving up the coast it may still be near cat-3 intensity for quite some time, the storm surge and inland rainfalls will be huge and wind damage near the shore considerable. This could be a high impact storm for the southeast. It will be 48 hours before there will be much certainty about potential for the northeast, at this point that could be anywhere from negligible to a Sandy redux (if perhaps in a different location). Some model scenarios have the storm moving well off the coast after North Carolina and only coming inland again in eastern Canada.
There was a local story this summer saying that the water off of Cape Cod was noticeably warmer than usual.If,by chance,the same applies all along the East Coast that could even mean trouble for Nova Scotia,let alone eastern states.
Don't forget "Trump's fault"
Water temps aside, if the eye is close to the coast, a hurricane will typically begin to lose intensity. I honestly don’t know what would be considered warm for the Atlantic off Cape Cod, the few times I’ve been in the area it seemed pretty cold in summer to me.
I looked at one weather site (is it me or are few of them user-friendly) and found a time lapse of predicted wind speed. The graphic had 90 m.p.h. winds when it hits us in New England. Uh oh.
Don't know where you're from but I've lived here all my life.While hurricanes,bad ones at least,aren't common here they're not unheard of either.I certainly ain't no expert on the topic but I always thought that hurricanes derived their power from warm ocean water.Of course I could be 100% wrong on that however.
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