this is right in line with the correct approach.
the only anomaly is ME-2 which is rated about like IA FL OH as slightly more TRUMP than the national average.
ME-2 would give Trump 270, with the other lean Trump states, include NH.
AFAIK that is based on the one poll of ME-2, from June, showing Trump up 37%-36%, I don’t know how much stock to put in that.
But Trump +FL, OH, IA, NV, NH is a realistic scenario, and yes that’s 269 (yuck, imagine that) so Maine-2 could be the clincher.
Alternatively Nebraska-2 could screw us, it’s not likely it goes Shillery in a close election, but I wouldn’t rule it out. The NE leg had a chance to abolish splitting the votes by CD and they foolishly failed to do so.