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To: PJ-Comix

The following national polls currently have Trump and Clinton within the margin of error-LA Times-Dorsife, UPI, Bloomberg, Reuters, Rasmussen and Gravis. This, despite the fact that most are using a 2008/2012 turnout model, i.e., oversampling blacks and Dems. Some oversample women, too.

IOW, relax is right.


4 posted on 08/16/2016 8:21:17 AM PDT by LNV (Nov. 2016-Trump the B!tch!)
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To: LNV

Trumps internal polls are probably much different.


5 posted on 08/16/2016 8:22:12 AM PDT by Don Corleone (Oil the gun, eat the cannolis, take it to the mattress.)
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To: LNV

Also, Gallup has for years tracked party affiliation, a very good indicator of where the electorate’s head is. In Nov. of ‘08 it was 51 D, 40 R, November of 2012 it was 50 D, 42 R. As of the last poll on July 13-17, it was 43 D, 43 R.

The Dems have lost 7 points since 2012, yet the pollsters are still churning out polls that assume the electorate is half Dem.


16 posted on 08/16/2016 8:34:31 AM PDT by LNV (Nov. 2016-Trump the B!tch!)
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