Trumps internal polls are probably much different.
Which is why Trump spent his Saturday night with me in Fairfield, CT.
Trump would not be wasting valuable campaign time in CT if things weren't looking much better for him with the internal (real) polling. I actually think CT is in play based on what my CT neighbors are telling me around the barbecue grill. All of them are for Trump. I do live in a mostly white affluent neighborhood so may not be representative of the rest of the state. However quite the crowd turned out Saturday night in Fairfield to hear Trump speak on a brutally hot night. Protesters were scarce.
I truly believe that many Trump supporters feel "bullied" and prefer to keep silent about the election. They just keep their heads down and go about their business, but they are determined to vote in November.
Something else anecdotal, I overhead one of my co-workers, who I know is for Trump, telling another co-worker that he didn't like any of the candidates and might write in somebody. Afterwards I asked him about that and he basically said that he was not going to tell that person he was a Trump supporter because he knew she for Shrillary and he didn't want to start an argument.
Basically they feel safe telling us but we don't feel safe telling them.