Posted on 04/16/2016 11:16:37 AM PDT by grumpa
The GOP delegate race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is far closer and more competitive than most of the mainstream media is reporting. As a result, and in an effort to get a more accurate view of where this race stands, comes this effort to update the picture with the more accurate reflection of where the GOP stands in the delegate count. The current delegate count reported by Real Clear Politics will be the starting point, with the specific changes not reported there, reported here instead. The current numbers reported there are 755 delegates for Donald Trump, and 545 delegates for Ted Cruz.
The previous edition of this column addressed why the 50 delegates Trump win in South Carolina will be converted to uncommitted, allowing those delegates to possibly and maybe likely vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Additionally, the 10 delegates in Louisiana gained by Cruz were explained, five were uncommitted delegates won by Cruz and the other five were the delegates Marco Rubio won in that state from primary voters. These changes leave the count at Trump 705, Cruz 555.
Conventions held recently in Tennessee and Virginia have lead to Trump losing eight delegates to Ted Cruz, while Cruz has gained an additional 8 delegates won from North Dakota. Additionally, it is reported from Republicans in Arizona that the state’s 58 delegates will actually be evenly split between the candidates, causing 29 delegates to move from Trump to Cruz. These changes mean Ted Cruz has 608 delegates to Trump’s 660 delegates.
Marco Rubio, who is all but certainly likely to endorse Ted Cruz, has 166 remaining delegates, that are likely to vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Those delegates will give Ted Cruz a 774 to 660 delegate lead over Donald Trump right now. That’s right, a Ted Cruz lead over Donald Trump in delegates right now.
What will happen after this is a likely split of most of the states between Trump and Cruz with Kasich winning some delegates in a few of the states. Going with those projections, and using the delegate simulator at Real Clear Politics, and then factoring in the changes covered in this article, the delegate count finishes with Ted Cruz having a 1071 delegates to 1051 delegates lead over Donald Trump. But even at those numbers, some media outlets might still be reporting a delegate lead for Trump. If the 50 delegates from South Carolina vote for Cruz, which is likely, Ted Cruz would be at 1101 delegates on the first ballot in Cleveland.
There will be well over 100 other uncommitted delegates, and both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will have every right to work on winning those delegates. They will likely split between the two candidates on the first ballot. It seems likely that both candidates will fall short of the 1237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. Ted Cruz would stand a good chance of winning at least 1237 on the second ballot to win the nomination and run against Hillary Clinton in November.
And you will be in shock in November when Trump loses to Hillary or Bernie. You underestimate the hate for Trump.
In other words, you won’t vote for Cruz under any circumstances, but you want the Cruz voters you are insulting to vote for Trump? President Hillary will enjoy hearing your words, but I’m hoping to discourage as many people as possible from following that path.
@Realjmannarino @realDonaldTrump @MELANIATRUMP How could they try to hit Melania? She treated Teds girls with love pic.twitter.com/dOmDtdE7sA— Citizens for Trump (@TimeforTruth16) March 24, 2016
So you admit that the caucus delegate system actually elected some Trump supporters as precinct representatives to the state convention?
Hundreds of trump delegates? Out of how many total delegates - the exact number is 3,953 delegates. A few hundred is a drop in the bucket and CERTAINLY not a majority. The MAJORITY of delegates were Cruz supports.
Time to face facts, Trump is not that popular here in Colorado.
http://ariarmstrong.com/2016/04/setting-the-record-straight-about-colorados-republican-caucus/
Cruz is crashing in the polls now. What happens to his momentum after he loses the next 6 contests, often placing 3rd?
He is done.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
If Cruz destroys the Party at the Convention then loses to Hillary, he is finished politically - BUT if he quits, he has a bright future.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
Yes, Cruz is a narcissistic jerk - and exactly why he will likely quit before Cleveland. Narcissists don't often commit suicide.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
I'm going on record as predicting CRUZ QUITS BEFORE CLEVELAND in a magnanimous gesture to save the Party gaining future leverage & goodwill.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
Does narcissistic Cruz at age 45 seem like the kind of man to destroy his career just to stop a man with whom he largely agrees on policy?
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
People say Cruz will stay in to the end out of ambition - but political suicide is not ambitious. Being the guy who "savedthe Party" is.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
Cruz going to Cleveland would be the equivalent of a Kamikaze pilot diving into an enemy ship. Bad for the boat, worse for the pilot.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
-
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3418598/posts?page=62#62
-
Cruz has lost it fair and square and should step aside for the sake of the country.
If his continued efforts at thievery split and destroy the party, we’ll be saddled by Hillary or burned by Bernie.
-
62 posted on 4/7/2016, 8:03:29 PM by Jim Robinson
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/gop/3419800/posts?page=51#51
-
Cruz lost the primary vote and is now aiding and abetting the enemy (the GOPe)
in their treasonous attempt to deny the nomination to the winner.
Cruz is a sore loser turned traitor against the grassroots voters.
And the foolish neophyte thinks the GOPe is going to let him have a shot at the presidency if he helps them block Trump?
Laughable if it wasn’t so serious.
-
51 posted on 4/11/2016, 4:58:07 PM by Jim Robinson
One thing we know for certain, who actually owns Trump, don’t we.
Yes, Trump owns Trump. Give up the hate.
Nah. Vote Trump.
No one "own's himself/herself," whether or not we like it or agree.
We are not the "captains of our souls" nor "the masters of our fate."
Do not believe that yourself friend, to your own peril.
I believe that Donald Trump believes it and that's what makes him ultimately dangerous. I'd rather hope that he is just putting on a front for the people he hopes to have follow him but knows who Owns and Leads him.
God help us if he is elected and does in fact believe he owns himself.
I don’t hate trump
He is one of the best liberals and New Yorkers
He is not conservative
Trump has actually given credit to God. He said how else can he have 40 million in attack ads run against him in the 10 days leading up to the Florida primaries and still win by a landslide??
No kidding. How is that possible??
No you don’t know that and certainly not for “certain”.
Trump is a deductive thinker - he begins with the goal and works back from there - no wasted motion - only what contributes to the result.
— Bill Mitchell (REAL) (@mitchellvii) March 21, 2016
Guys like Cruz are inductive thinkers. They are so obsessed with the ideological front end, the actual result is an afterthought.
— Bill Mitchell (REAL) (@mitchellvii) March 21, 2016
I honestly think the web site lists conservative positions
Great.
I’ve listened to trump in all of the debates
That is not what he says.
And yes if you look at cruzs website it is quite similar but far more specific and far more endorsed
Planned parenthood is not a great organization
The government should not guarantee health care
That's news?
Henry Olsen has been saying that for years.
Four factions in the GOP: Moderates and liberals (25–30%), somewhat conservative voters (35-40%), very conservative Evangelicals (20%), and very conservative secular voters (5-10%).
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.