Posted on 04/16/2016 11:16:37 AM PDT by grumpa
The GOP delegate race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is far closer and more competitive than most of the mainstream media is reporting. As a result, and in an effort to get a more accurate view of where this race stands, comes this effort to update the picture with the more accurate reflection of where the GOP stands in the delegate count. The current delegate count reported by Real Clear Politics will be the starting point, with the specific changes not reported there, reported here instead. The current numbers reported there are 755 delegates for Donald Trump, and 545 delegates for Ted Cruz.
The previous edition of this column addressed why the 50 delegates Trump win in South Carolina will be converted to uncommitted, allowing those delegates to possibly and maybe likely vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Additionally, the 10 delegates in Louisiana gained by Cruz were explained, five were uncommitted delegates won by Cruz and the other five were the delegates Marco Rubio won in that state from primary voters. These changes leave the count at Trump 705, Cruz 555.
Conventions held recently in Tennessee and Virginia have lead to Trump losing eight delegates to Ted Cruz, while Cruz has gained an additional 8 delegates won from North Dakota. Additionally, it is reported from Republicans in Arizona that the state’s 58 delegates will actually be evenly split between the candidates, causing 29 delegates to move from Trump to Cruz. These changes mean Ted Cruz has 608 delegates to Trump’s 660 delegates.
Marco Rubio, who is all but certainly likely to endorse Ted Cruz, has 166 remaining delegates, that are likely to vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Those delegates will give Ted Cruz a 774 to 660 delegate lead over Donald Trump right now. That’s right, a Ted Cruz lead over Donald Trump in delegates right now.
What will happen after this is a likely split of most of the states between Trump and Cruz with Kasich winning some delegates in a few of the states. Going with those projections, and using the delegate simulator at Real Clear Politics, and then factoring in the changes covered in this article, the delegate count finishes with Ted Cruz having a 1071 delegates to 1051 delegates lead over Donald Trump. But even at those numbers, some media outlets might still be reporting a delegate lead for Trump. If the 50 delegates from South Carolina vote for Cruz, which is likely, Ted Cruz would be at 1101 delegates on the first ballot in Cleveland.
There will be well over 100 other uncommitted delegates, and both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will have every right to work on winning those delegates. They will likely split between the two candidates on the first ballot. It seems likely that both candidates will fall short of the 1237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. Ted Cruz would stand a good chance of winning at least 1237 on the second ballot to win the nomination and run against Hillary Clinton in November.
I hope this is not true, at least for the first round of Convention balloting. Arizona is explicitly "winner take all". To split the delegates otherwise would be corrupt. I have no problem with Cruz gaming the system when he uses the rules to his advantage, but anything other than all the Arizona delegates being bound to vote for Trump would be a clear violation of those rules.
Additionally, under Rule 16 for the GOP Convention, bound delegates slated for Trump are required to vote Trump in the first round of balloting if Trump's name is placed in nomination. I hope this was written by a liberal trying to sow division in the GOP - he's succeeding - and not by someone who thinks violating the rules is okay.
Cruz has the ability to “win” small caucus states and very damn few primaries where hundreds of thousands of people vote. When he couldn’t carry the first state in the South, his supposedly “firewall” I knew he was not a serious candidate. Now the only reason he’s still around, with the help of his GOPe masters, is to try and take enough delegates away from Trump so he can’t put this thing away before the convention. Cruz has always been a member of the Bush cartel, about as GOPe as you can get. www.tedbush.org.
Cruz Core Math strikes again!
From Mirriam Webster.
Disenfranchise: To deprive of a franchise, of a legal right, or of some privilege or immunity; especially : to deprive of the right to vote
Does the Colorado GOP have the ability to confer or deny rights.
Who has the franchise to vote in Colorado primaries?
Who took that right away?
Words have meaning. (Except ‘Fair’ which has no meaning other than what people decide to give it, and it changes for every person)
Absolutely no one was disenfranchised.
The lie is working though.
I noted that the Fox national poll for the Republican nomination last week showed an astounding collapse of cruz’s support. This followed the disaster in Colorado. Let me detail this stunning nose dive by your man following Colorado. He dropped in a three man race from 38% to 27% IN ONE WEEK !! He lost 29% of his total support after the rigging of Colorado. Check it out. There is no other explanation. He was exposed as a puppet for the apparatchiks in Colorado where the “ballots” selecting delegates left off their name or their candidate in violations of the rules and where the people in the state were denied a VOTE!! They were screwed. People don’t like being screwed. Any way,it has hurt scruz but not as bad as his political slaughter on Tuesday.
I’ll bet you blame the victim for the rape? You blame the robbed for the robbery, don’t you.Sad really.
Just how many of these women began as strippers or posed nude in girly magazines?
You would lose that bet.
Your choice of words says a lot about you though.
There were thunderer of Trump people there but the GOPe/Cruz people handed out a ballot for delegate selection that violated there own rules . Instead of showing the name of the delegate and who that delegate would commit to ( Required by the Colorado Rules) it showed a damned NUMBER assigned to a delegate. What kind of crap was that? There were hundreds of Trump delegated there. How did scruz get ALL the delegate? That is impossible. I think they just STOLE IT!! I will be amazed if that delegation is not thrown out in Cleveland.
And yet Cruz still doesn’t even have half the 1237. And that is with all the Cruz thefts and support of the establishment.
It only gets better it's from a crazy pro-Cruz source, and uses "skewed" just like that Unskewed Polls guy from 2012 that said Romney was way ahead of Obama, despite obvious reality.
Then we'll be facing four years of a socialist president--either a dumb socialist like Sanders, or a shrewd socialist like Hillary.
I do not for one second think Cruz will be president. He has too much baggage. Anyone who thinks the Nat'l Enquirer story (which Cruz never rebutted) or the CO debacle will not be brought up by the media/Democrat cabal is delusional.
True, there’s a lot more schlonging of Teddy Bear yet to go.
You are very brave to post this.
But Cruz outwits Trump at every turn. Meanwhile, Trump screams and has his Trumper Tantrums. He’s always the victim of foul play. Hillary or Sanders will evecerate Trump in the debates. He’s not prepared to run or be a responsible president.
Trump has surged back to a 61% chance of winning the GOP nomination, after hitting a 47% low in early April. Cruz's collapse in the polls, coupled with Cruz's staring down massive losses on April 19 and April 26, have Trump rising again.
Yes, the main stream media has certainly been pushing the disenfranchisement myth and has been somewhat successful with their attack on Coloradans and Sen Cruz.
That is why I am fighting against these unfounded attacks by telling the truth about the process. Though those with closed minds don’t want to listen to the facts.
Boy are you in for a shock when it's July, and Ted Cruz is officially not the Republican nominee for President.
No one will remember any of this after the convention. No permanent damage done. It’s politics dontcha know.
BUT, if lyin Ted Cruz steals the nomination from Trump, I not only won’t vote for Ted, I will vote straight Democrat.
FUGOPE.
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