Posted on 04/16/2016 11:16:37 AM PDT by grumpa
The GOP delegate race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is far closer and more competitive than most of the mainstream media is reporting. As a result, and in an effort to get a more accurate view of where this race stands, comes this effort to update the picture with the more accurate reflection of where the GOP stands in the delegate count. The current delegate count reported by Real Clear Politics will be the starting point, with the specific changes not reported there, reported here instead. The current numbers reported there are 755 delegates for Donald Trump, and 545 delegates for Ted Cruz.
The previous edition of this column addressed why the 50 delegates Trump win in South Carolina will be converted to uncommitted, allowing those delegates to possibly and maybe likely vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Additionally, the 10 delegates in Louisiana gained by Cruz were explained, five were uncommitted delegates won by Cruz and the other five were the delegates Marco Rubio won in that state from primary voters. These changes leave the count at Trump 705, Cruz 555.
Conventions held recently in Tennessee and Virginia have lead to Trump losing eight delegates to Ted Cruz, while Cruz has gained an additional 8 delegates won from North Dakota. Additionally, it is reported from Republicans in Arizona that the state’s 58 delegates will actually be evenly split between the candidates, causing 29 delegates to move from Trump to Cruz. These changes mean Ted Cruz has 608 delegates to Trump’s 660 delegates.
Marco Rubio, who is all but certainly likely to endorse Ted Cruz, has 166 remaining delegates, that are likely to vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Those delegates will give Ted Cruz a 774 to 660 delegate lead over Donald Trump right now. That’s right, a Ted Cruz lead over Donald Trump in delegates right now.
What will happen after this is a likely split of most of the states between Trump and Cruz with Kasich winning some delegates in a few of the states. Going with those projections, and using the delegate simulator at Real Clear Politics, and then factoring in the changes covered in this article, the delegate count finishes with Ted Cruz having a 1071 delegates to 1051 delegates lead over Donald Trump. But even at those numbers, some media outlets might still be reporting a delegate lead for Trump. If the 50 delegates from South Carolina vote for Cruz, which is likely, Ted Cruz would be at 1101 delegates on the first ballot in Cleveland.
There will be well over 100 other uncommitted delegates, and both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will have every right to work on winning those delegates. They will likely split between the two candidates on the first ballot. It seems likely that both candidates will fall short of the 1237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. Ted Cruz would stand a good chance of winning at least 1237 on the second ballot to win the nomination and run against Hillary Clinton in November.
There is so much wrong with this is almost not worth posting. But most of this guy’s premise of that delegates can do what they want first ballot. Not true. So this is a better look at where Cruz or on second ballot.
Good grief, get a life.
Seriously?
Keep in mind two facts: one, that Cruz never denied that story and two, that the MSM always wants to take out the threat to its ultimate goal of socialist utopia (aka authoritarian dictatorship). Trump is a serious threat to that ultimate goal.
Right now, the MSM is aiming to take Trump down. It does not advance their goal to focus on Cruz, so they are not sending out the investigative reporters to dig out the basis of that story. But do not believe for one moment that that story won't come roaring back if they ever succeed in taking out Trump. And do not believe either that the CO debacle won't be front and center in the MSM during the general election, if Cruz is the nominee. The MSM and Democrats know that Republican voters, in general, value integrity in elections. So here is a chance to paint Cruz as engaging in vote fraud, and Cruz handed them that material on a silver platter! And then there is that little thing about Cruz trying to portray himself as a holier-than-thou "pure" conservative--perfect material for the MSM to start fear-mongering about theocracies and all the freedom we will lose if Cruz is elected.
There are a lot more facts and implications of those facts that I could list here, but the fact is, Cruz has a ton of baggage that will guarantee his loss against any Democrat. And the best you have against Trump is--
"Going back to 1983, Donald Trump has reportedly been named in 169 lawsuits and that’s only at the national level. Sued by celebrities, personal assistants, prisoners, mental hospital patients, unions, and wealthy businessmen.
Is that even normal?"
Yeah, gold diggers try to get rich quick by suing wealthy businesses and businessmen all the time. You only have to watch TV to be inundated by scummy lawyers offering to file such a lawsuit on your behalf, too. The fact that this goes on all the time, and that Trump has been targeted by it means... nothing. It is an unfortunate risk of doing business.
Excellent post #31, Pollster1.
You would think the Freepers who are taking the position that if their guy (whether it’s Trump or Cruz) doesn’t get the nomination they’ll sit out the general election would have more sense. Maybe reason will prevail in the end. If not, there’ll be another Clinton in the White House.
The nominee is going to need the supporters of the other camp.
Trump would have won a real vote by the party members. HAVE A VOTE OPEN TO THE PEOPLE!!
No, we don’t want democrats voting in republican election. It is a closed caucus for that very reason. I know that Trump does well in states that are open primaries but that is not how we want to do things here in Colorado.
I’ll let you know if I ever see you state it.
Well God bless you— you don’t want anybody to vote. I have never seen anything like it. Saddam Hussein had fairer elections that Colorado.
Does Ted have a Goldman 1M loan at a lower interest than you or I could get? Or not?
How do you figure that? ANY REGISTERED REPUBLICAN can vote in the caucuses.
As do millions of others for a variety of reasons.
This crap just happened again in Wyoming. This is madness. Buckle your seat belts. This is theft!!
Prepare yourself for the next step in the Cruz Polling Implosion. He may start running 3rd everywhere.— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 16, 2016
Hardly.
Look, do you get to vote on passing the budget out of committee in Congress - no. Do you get to vote on supreme court nomination - no. Your elected Representative votes, not you. This is not any different. In Colorado and in Wyoming, we vote for those who will represent us
The stupid runs deep in many of these folks crying ‘foul’ re: the various state primary election processes. They don’t understand the process (or can’t understand it), so they do the only thing they do know how to do. Make false equivalencies and display their idiocy.
They either underestimate it....
or they are counting on it.
I would bet on the latter.
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