"Ted, I am your father!"
Posted on 04/01/2016 10:00:49 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
Okay, we know that Ted Cruz needs to win 84% of the remaining delegates to reach the magic 1237 to win the nomination. Since that won't be happening, his ONLY hope is to win after the first ballot at an open (brokered) convention. For him to win you need to believe that the GOPe would be cool with a Cruz nomination.
Sooooo... On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being a complete impossibility of a Cruz nomination and 10 being an absolute certainty that Cruz will be nominated, numerically rate Cruz's chances of a nomination after the first ballot at the GOP convention this summer.
For Cruz to win, you need to believe that the delegates currently committed to nonTrump candidates will not under any circumstances cast their votes for Trump and that they believe Cruz is the better candidate.
9.9
The problem is your assumptions. An open convention is not a "brokered" convention. Brokering implies more centralized control. What will happen is the delegates themselves have to settle on a nominee and some of them are going to have to change their votes after the first ballot, once they are unbound. It may not require any negotiating at all to get a nominee, but if there is it will be negotiating between the candidates and the delegates, not some hidden power.
Which leads to the second invalid assumption. The GOPe doesn't dictate the result of the open convention. The delegates will decide. The same delegates that were won by the Trump, Cruz and Carson campaigns in the first place.
0.
You do realize that the GOPe got behind him only as a means of neutralizing Trump, right?
You do realize they will eviscerate him the moment he has fulfilled his purpose, right?
You’re really not so dim that you aren’t aware of that, right?
All that means is that he would lose less of his votes on second ballot than Trump. Still waaaaay below the number needed for nomination.
-8
It’s either Trump or Cruz. There is no try. Whoever wins will have a majority though so I would not call it “brokered.”
Exactly. Ted has a very strong organization.
Whether the GOPe likes it or not.
But Cruz or Trump will get crushed in the general unless we all unite.
I hope not since I AGREE with you. Read MY post.
10 (if he runs trump over with his car)
"Ted, I am your father!"
You may be surprised, Cruz may very well win without the convention regardless of the math....plays are still in the making yet to be revealed.
Why put any candidate thru this process for almost a year and then discard the results? If Cruz instead of Trump has more delegates and votes than Trump, Cruz should get the nomination even if he is short the 1237 needed.
Neither Trump nor Cruz will win a contested convention. The GOPe will parachute in a "fresh face." Cruz is just the instrument to prevent Trump from reaching the required number. Cruz is on a suicide mission for the GOPe. Kasich has a better shot than Cruz to be the nominee.
If Trump doesn’t get the nomination, Cruz will find out firsthand how McCain felt about his “friends” in the media.
10
Zero!
It’s no surprise the GOPe want a fresh face....but I doubt very much they will have one. Although Soros is funding Kasich to keep him in the running.
I apologize.
Karl Rove clearly telegraphed the GOPe's intentions. They're going with a 'fresh face'.
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