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It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
fivethirtyeight.com ^ | Mar 16, 2016 | Harry Enten

Posted on 03/16/2016 10:54:21 AM PDT by ConservingFreedom

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To: ConservingFreedom

Huh? What planet does this come from and could you give us your stock choices so we could get rich betting against them?


21 posted on 03/16/2016 12:20:14 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: JimRed

Without OH Trump’s path got a little harder, instead of only 45% of the outstanding proportional/hybrid delegates, he needs 55% (assuming he gets AZ, NJ and DEL)... but its hardly impossible..

Look at MO, that’s about as razor thin as you can get and Trump still is going to likely have 61.5% of the state delegates when its all said and done... And MO is about the farthest east Cruz will be competitive. He’ll probably get the rest of the western states, but he’s not going to play any better than he did in MO anyplace east... and that’s being generous.

Kasich is a non starter, he may peel some votes from Cruz, heck he might even pull out a surprise somewhere, but there is no way he’s going to stop Trump from winning most of the remaining states and thus gaining the majority of the delegates. Yes 55% is tougher than 45% but this idea that Trump can’t get that on average going into the states that are remaining is hardly impossible.

In a 3 way race, its almost certain Trump will win most of the states left, the only question is the size of the win. And remember, depending on how states allocate delegates, the wins don’t have to be by large margins to equate to large delegate percentage differences... as I pointed out before MO is about as skin of your teeth as you can get, and assuming trump gets at least 1 of the 3 outstanding districts, he winds up with 61.5% of the states delegates.

Time will tell, but the idea that he can’t reach 1237 is a bit premature.


22 posted on 03/16/2016 12:21:37 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: pfflier

Another indication last night was that Cruz’s support in states that should have been his base fell sharply after hiring Neil Bush and condemning Trump for the violent Muslim, Communist, illegal alien, and #Blacklivesmatter thugs attacking his rallies.


23 posted on 03/16/2016 12:23:16 PM PDT by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: qman

I’m in same the boat - ME. I will write Cruz in as well.


24 posted on 03/16/2016 12:54:47 PM PDT by reviled downesdad (Some of the blind will never believe the Truth.)
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To: HamiltonJay
the idea that he can’t reach 1237

Where has this idea been expressed? Not in the article or on this thread.

25 posted on 03/16/2016 1:05:55 PM PDT by ConservingFreedom (Trump fans:'he's no more conservative than Mitt'-www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3389209/posts)
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To: A CA Guy

“give us your stock choices so we could get rich betting against them”

You can get rich betting on Trump here: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=481890 Let us know how much money you put where your mouth is.


26 posted on 03/16/2016 1:21:17 PM PDT by ConservingFreedom (Trump fans:'he's no more conservative than Mitt'-www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3389209/posts)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

“he had won Missouri which is HUGE since Trump got a TON of delegates from that win.”

37 to Cruz’ 15 if this count holds up: https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/ElectionResultsStatistics/1230AMCandidateTotalsbyCongressionalDistrict-withnumbers.pdf


27 posted on 03/16/2016 1:34:08 PM PDT by ConservingFreedom (Trump fans:'he's no more conservative than Mitt'-www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3389209/posts)
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