Cruz now tied with Trump in Louisiana! Over? ...It's NEVER over.

Red State ^ | March 6, 2016 | Moe Lane

[2ndDivisionVet]

The Louisiana state GOP announced the current estimated delegate breakdown: Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both get 18, Marco Rubio gets 5. How is this possible, when Trump got more votes? Well, the popular vote count statewide was effectively a two-man race, as only Trump and Cruz got above 20%. Those at-large delegates (28 total) went 12 for Trump, 11 for Cruz, 5 unbound. But! Louisiana has 6 Congressional Districts, and each gets 3 delegates (18 total). In five of those districts the state GOP is unofficially calling it as Cruz, Rubio, and Trump all getting 1 delegate... except in LA-05, where Cruz gets 2 and Trump gets 1. Thus, the current score is 18-18, with 5 for Rubio and the other 5 officially unaffiliated*.

All of this, by the way, will be the subject of much vigorous debate and discussion in Louisiana political circles over the next week, which probably means that there's going to be a brawl at the upcoming state convention.

Still: if you thought that Donald Trump's awful, no-good night was at least over for him, rest assured: it's not. The universe itself conspires to come back to the tableau* of his humiliation and dump one last small, yet stinking, dollop of embarrassment on his head. As it stands now, the guy didn't even win the delegate count in Louisiana. He could only manage to tie with Ted Cruz, a man who Trump just recently described as "L-I-E-N." Perhaps he meant "lion?" It's so hard to tell, with that particular dude.

Moe Lane

PS: If you were ever wondering what good a professional campaign organization can do for a candidate, it's this: it can take a state where the polls had a candidate down by 15 points on Election Day, and turn it into a state where the candidate tied for first in the delegate count. And perfectly ethically, too! The rules are the rules, and they're perfectly reasonable ones; it's nobody's fault except Trump and his campaign's if they didn't actually read them, and Ted Cruz's people did. Welcome to the big leagues...

*The Republican party doesn't really use super-delegates to the override-the-will-of-the-voters extent that the Democrats do, but the party has a few.

**Well, you know. Louisiana. French. It seemed like a good word to use, under the circumstances.

[Right-wing Librarian]

Prior to this election cycle, I would have never thought so.
Seeing the Establishment unveil themselves, I believe they all play their part for their masters.

Upthread, I posted several links, but I think this one probably best speaks to my thoughts:

What Every Voter Needs to Know about Ted Cruz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXcYCwaBKnQ

[SeaHawkFan]

Reagan had friends on both sides of the isle. How many friends does Ted have?

So how is it that Trumpsters claim Cruz is part of the GOPe if no one in D.C. likes him? That's the question I want answered.

[douginthearmy]

No idea, some people say anything. It is quite possible, even likely, that the GOPe is using Cruz to get to a brokered convention. The thing Cruz supporters don’t seem to want to understand is that once the delegates hit the floor and there is not a clear winner, the GOPe runs the show. Point out all the rules you want, they write the rules and they can rewrite them before the convention even starts. Cruz can’t get 1237 delegates, he can only prevent Trump from getting 1237. At this point, support for Cruz becomes support for GOPe.

[Starstruck]

Isn’t that the pic of Trump mocking the goofy spastic liberal......

Even though I have problems with your Trump support, I would never bring your mental retardation into the conversation.

[Bikkuri]

Yup, I see the hypocrisy still hasn’t worn off with them.. sad, really :^\

[Mr Apple]

You liked my post I see. Yes, it was choice. Nothing like spaz-isms.......

[SunkenCiv]

Green Papers, not Red Stain, Louisiana assigns proportionally:

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Louisiana Primary 2016

The Green Papers
2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions

 

Louisiana Republican
Presidential Nominating Process
District Caucuses: Tuesday 1 March 2016
Primary: Saturday 5 March 2016
State Convention: Saturday 12 March 2016

Candidate	Popular Vote	Delegate Votes
		Soft Pledged	Soft Unpledged	Soft Total	Hard Total
Trump, Donald John, Sr.	124,819  41.44%	18  39.13%		18  39.13%	18  39.13%
Cruz, Rafael Edward "Ted"	113,947  37.83%	18  39.13%		18  39.13%	18  39.13%
Rubio, Marco A.	33,807  11.22%	5  10.87%		5  10.87%	5  10.87%
Kasich, John Richard	19,350   6.42%
Carson, Benjamin Solomon "Ben", Sr.	4,542   1.51%
Bush, John Ellis "Jeb"	2,143   0.71%
Paul, Randal H. "Rand"	673   0.22%
Huckabee, Michael Dale "Mike"	648   0.22%
Christie, Christopher James "Chris"	399   0.13%
Fiorina, Carleton Sneed "Carly"	248   0.08%
Cook, Timothy "Tim"	217   0.07%
Santorum, Richard John "Rick"	182   0.06%
Graham, Lindsey Olin	155   0.05%
Messina, Peter	46   0.02%
Uncommitted		5  10.87%		5  10.87%	5  10.87%
Total	301,176 100.00%	46 100.00%		46 100.00%	46 100.00%

Delegate Selection: Proportional Primary,
Polling hours reportedly 6:00a CST (1200 UTC) to 8:00p CST (0200 UTC).
Voter Eligibility: Closed Primary
 
46 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 18 re: 6 congressional districts / 3 party / 15 bonus

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Tuesday 1 March 2016: District Caucuses convene to nominate candidates for National Convention District delegates. The delegates will be elected at the State Convention.

 

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Saturday 5 March 2016: All 46 of Louisiana's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Presidential Primary. [Delegate Selection Rules Resolution 2015-10. RULES FOR CONVENING OF THE STATE CONVENTION TO ELECT DELEGATES TO THE 2016 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION.]

• 18 District delegates, 3 from each of the state's 6 Congressional Districts, are proportionally allocated to Presidential contenders according to the primary vote in each Congressional District (rounded rules are not specified) [Rule 3. (d)].
• 28 (10 base at-large delegates plus 15 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC) statewide delegates are proportionally allocated to those Presidential contenders who receive 20% or more of the total statewide vote (as rounded by the Executive Committee). The allocation is in proportion to the total statewide vote NOT the total vote of those candidates receiving 20% or more of statewide vote. The remaining delegates are unbound (this may be a violation of RNC rules). The rule says "Presidential candidates receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote ... will be allocated the same proportion, rounded by the Executive Committee ...." [Rule 4. (c)].

We do not have the math but according to the party:
CD 1: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
CD 2: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
CD 3: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
CD 4: Trump 1, Cruz 2
CD 5: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
CD 6: Trump 1, Cruz 1, Rubio 1
Statewide: Trump 12, Cruz 11, Uncommitted 5.
Total: Trump 18, Cruz 18, Rubio 5, Uncommitted 5.

Primary

Contest			Trump			Cruz			Uncommitted
	Pop Vote	Del	Pop Vote	%	Del	Pop Vote	%	Del	Pop Vote	%	Del
CD1	35,081	3	15,578	44.406%	1	12,080	34.435%	1
CD2	4,153	3	1,851	44.570%	1	1,513	36.431%	1
CD3	49,929	3	20,949	41.958%	1	19,360	38.775%	1
CD4	49,232	3	18,670	37.922%	1	21,638	43.951%	1
CD5	44,101	3	18,299	41.493%	1	17,390	39.432%	1
CD6	31,658	3	13,262	41.891%	1	13,547	42.792%	1
Statewide	214,154	28	88,609	41.376%	12	85,528	39.938%	11			5
Total Delegates		46			18			17			5

CD1: Rounding produced 1 too few statewide delegates.
CD2: Rounding produced 1 too few statewide delegates.
CD3: Rounding produced 1 too few statewide delegates.
CD4: Rounding produced 1 too few statewide delegates.
CD5: Rounding produced 1 too few statewide delegates.
CD6: Rounding produced 1 too few statewide delegates.
Statewide: The 20% threshold resulted in 5 unbound delegates.

Delegates to the National Convention ... are bound ... on the first ballot only .... If a presidential candidate ends or suspends his/her candidacy, the designated delegates are no longer bound. [Rule 4. (f)].

 

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Saturday 12 March 2016: The State Convention convenes in Baton Rouge to elect delegates to the Republican National Convention according to the results of the primary.

• 18 National Convention district delegates-- 3 from each of the state's 6 Congressional Districts are elected in the Congressional District meetings at the State Convention.
• 25 National Convention At-Large delegates are elected by the convention as a whole.
• The 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Louisiana's Republican Party, will attend the convention as pledged delegates by virtue of their position [Rule 4. (e]).

 

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On 19 June 2014, HB 431 was signed by Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal. The bill moves the 2016 Presidential Primary from 3rd Saturday after the 1st Tuesday in March (19 March 2016) to the 1st Saturday in March (5 March 2016).

The Green Papers
2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions

 

Louisiana Democrat
Presidential Nominating Process
Primary: Saturday 5 March 2016¹
Post Primary Congressional Caucus: Saturday 30 April 2016
State Central Committee: Saturday 28 May 2016

Candidate	Popular Vote	Delegate Votes
		Soft Pledged	Soft Unpledged (source)	Soft Total	Hard Total
Clinton, Hillary Diane Rodham	221,613  71.12%	37  72.55%	7  87.50%	44  74.58%	37  62.71%
Sanders, Bernard "Bernie"	72,242  23.18%	14  27.45%		14  23.73%	14  23.73%
Burke, Steve	4,782   1.53%
Wolfe, John	4,507   1.45%
O'Malley, Martin Joseph	2,546   0.82%
Wilson, Willie L.	1,421   0.46%
Judd, Keith Russell	1,356   0.44%
De La Fuente Guerra, Roque "Rocky"	1,338   0.43%
Steinberg, Michael Alan	995   0.32%
Hewes, Henry	807   0.26%
Uncommitted					8  13.56%
(available)			1  12.50%	1   1.69%
Total	311,607 100.00%	51 100.00%	8 100.00%	59 100.00%	59 100.00%

Delegate Selection: Proportional Primary,
Polling hours reportedly 6:00a CST (1200 UTC) to 8:00p CST (0200 UTC).
Voter Eligibility: Closed Primary
 
59 total delegate votes - 33 district / 11 at large; 7 Pledged PLEOs; 8 Unpledged PLEOs

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Results from
AP Statewide
Politico.
Louisiana Democratic Party

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Unpledged delegate preferences as of
26 February 2016: Clinton 2.
4 March 2016: Clinton 7.

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• 33 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 6 congressional districts.
• In addition, 18 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
  • 11 at-large National Convention delegates
  • 7 Pledged PLEOs

Primary

Contest				Clinton			Sanders
	Pop Vote	Qual Vote	Del	Pop Vote	Alloc	Del	Pop Vote	Alloc	Del
CD1	34,843	33,695	4	20,695	2.457	2	13,000	1.543	2
CD2	95,603	94,867	8	76,696	6.468	6	18,171	1.532	2
CD3	35,873	32,873	5	22,372	3.403	3	10,501	1.597	2
CD4	47,215	44,234	5	34,636	3.915	4	9,598	1.085	1
CD5	45,574	42,371	6	33,671	4.768	5	8,700	1.232	1
CD6	47,673	45,817	5	33,546	3.661	4	12,271	1.339	1
PLEO	306,781	293,857	7	221,616	5.279	5	72,241	1.721	2
At-Large	306,781	293,857	11	221,616	8.296	8	72,241	2.704	3
Total Delegates			51			37			14

 

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Saturday 30 April 2016 Post-primary Congressional District Caucuses. The 33 District-level delegates are elected in a vote by mail caucus according to the results of the primary. Ballots will be mailed to every registered Democrat requesting a ballot.

 

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Saturday 28 May 2016: Democratic State Central Committee. 7 National Convention Pledged PLEO and 11 At-Large delegates are elected according to the results of the primary.

The remaining 8 National Convention delegates consist of

• 8 Unpledged PLEO delegates:
  • 6 Democratic National Committee members.
  • 1 Member of Congress (0 Senators and 1 Representative).
  • 1 Governor.
  • 0 Distinguished Party Leaders.

These 8 delegates and will go to the Democratic National Convention officially "Unpledged".  

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On 19 June 2014, HB 431 was signed by Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal. The bill moves the 2016 Presidential Primary from 3rd Saturday after the 1st Tuesday in March (19 March 2016) to the 1st Saturday in March (5 March 2016).

 

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Notes

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Primary dates marked "presumably" and polling times marked "reportedly" are based on unofficial or estimated data (especially as regards local variations from a jurisdictionwide statutory and/or regulatory standard) and are, thereby, subject to change.

[wardaddy]

Last California poll was December and was well within margin of error at Cruz plus two

The other ones had Trump up

All were tiny......samples around 300....

No real polls on California yet

[Baldwin77]

Gosh, you’re just so smart./s I, of course, knew that. Just pointing out that Trump is more liked in latino land that Mr. Canadian Cuban is.

[DrewsDad]

[I meant to reply to your post instead]
My post was in response to the overconfident Trump supporter claiming that Trump would destroy everyone in all the east/west coast states. If you look at my other posts on this thread, you’ll see that I agreed that it was a statistical tie which is far from the notion of Trump destroying everyone.