Posted on 03/03/2016 8:48:36 PM PST by Citizen Zed
Donald Trump’s Super Tuesday delegate haul was no blowout. He won 254 delegates, Ted Cruz won 217, and Marco Rubio took in 97. But Trump beat FiveThirtyEight’s delegate targets, which estimate the number of delegates each candidate needs to win in each contest to be on track to win the nomination. If Trump continues to meet or exceed those targets through the remainder of the primaries, he’ll end up with just enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination.
It’s true, as The Associated Press reported, that Trump hasn’t won a majority of the delegates awarded so far; he’s won about 46 percent of them. But when you look at the states that have voted, that’s about 5 percentage points better than he should have done, based on polling data, demographics and social media data, which factor into our delegate targets.
How do they work? We know, for example, that Trump pulls a disproportionate share of his support from voters without a college degree, so he tends to do better in contests with less-educated electorates. Our targets take these kinds of demographic dynamics into account. Looking forward, Trump should win more delegates in states with fewer college-educated voters. If Trump hits his targets in the remaining contests, he’ll end up with 1,276 delegates out of 2,472 — 52 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
RCP average has Trump ahead by 19% in LA.
There should be a good chance to pick off Bennet in Colorado who is seen as very vulnerable. A cornucopia of R candidates who want that senate seat.
Disagree. Trump’s tendency to launch nasty attacks hurt him. Personally I liked him when he first declared but his negative attack on Carson a guy I don’t support was really disgraceful. Trump’s at his best when he attacks Dems. He knows the Dems & how devious they are.
He speaks plainly - most People like that in a man. Mississippi is polling with Trump +24 - my wife and I are trying to make that Trump +29....we both have college degrees that have nothing to do with the "Arts".
Welcome to FR.
The crowds are great, but they are as much Rats as Pubs. Trump will not unify the Pub party. He's too crude, crass and boorish. He has personally insulted his opponents and as a result a larger than expected number of Pubs will stay home. Trump is bringing in lifelong Rats, but I don't think their numbers will off set the Pubs who don't vote and the higher turnout for the Rats.
Which attack on him bothered you the most? The self admitted hammer attack on his mother or the self-admitted attempt to stab a playmate. I don't know if Trump said anything about the Pyramid grain elevator thing.
The crowds are great, but they are as much Rats as Pubs. Trump will not unify the Pub party. He’s too crude, crass and boorish. He has personally insulted his opponents and as a result a larger than expected number of Pubs will stay home. Trump is bringing in lifelong Rats, but I don’t think their numbers will off set the Pubs who don’t vote and the higher turnout for the Rats.
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Thanks for the welcome, been Freepin around since the late 90’s. And I’m right of Rush, but a realist.
I disagree with your analysis.
Trump is leading in every demographic in primary voting. And at this point he is the only candidate capable of pulling off the nomination and bringing in more than just conservative voters.
Unfortunately it’s a complete myth, pushed by Rush, that a candidate can win the presidency with just conservative voters, demographics have changed.The reason Cruz is not leading is because Trump is beating him with conservatives.
Really the only choice in stopping Hillary is Trump. Hillary known, Trump a risk, but well worth it, when you consider the alternative is 8 years of Clinton.
The trump attack on Carson was disgraceful. Carson’s history shows all can better oneself. If trump wanted to attack Carson, attack his ideas.
Since trump is a lefty he ofcourse attacks Carson personally.
Trump added two Ohio stops today.
Dayton and Cleveland on the 12th.
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