Posted on 03/03/2016 8:48:36 PM PST by Citizen Zed
Donald Trump’s Super Tuesday delegate haul was no blowout. He won 254 delegates, Ted Cruz won 217, and Marco Rubio took in 97. But Trump beat FiveThirtyEight’s delegate targets, which estimate the number of delegates each candidate needs to win in each contest to be on track to win the nomination. If Trump continues to meet or exceed those targets through the remainder of the primaries, he’ll end up with just enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination.
It’s true, as The Associated Press reported, that Trump hasn’t won a majority of the delegates awarded so far; he’s won about 46 percent of them. But when you look at the states that have voted, that’s about 5 percentage points better than he should have done, based on polling data, demographics and social media data, which factor into our delegate targets.
How do they work? We know, for example, that Trump pulls a disproportionate share of his support from voters without a college degree, so he tends to do better in contests with less-educated electorates. Our targets take these kinds of demographic dynamics into account. Looking forward, Trump should win more delegates in states with fewer college-educated voters. If Trump hits his targets in the remaining contests, he’ll end up with 1,276 delegates out of 2,472 — 52 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Cruz has petitioned the RNC to hold the Texas primary every week
First of all, the GOPe baited him into showing up for this debate/ambush with the Romney thing. Then they attacked him with flamethrowers and burned the whole effing house down in the process. This was a disaster.
Those college educated types will go for Bernie.Speaks volumes on todays college educated types.
NY values will lead to zero delegates from NY
I think Trump’s negatives are exaggerated by an excess of candidates.
Isn’t Trump ahead of Willard at this stage?
The Republicans lose the Senate because most have shown themselves to be RINOS.
If this was 2012, the Texas primary would have been too late for Cruz. He would have wilted away before the month of May when Texas had their primary in the past.
18 winner-take-all contests.
One of the failures of colleges and universities is that students “rate” the professors, who can be fired on the basis of bad student evaluations. Therefore, professor try to play along with their charges to keep their jobs.
Actually, TX had March primaries in 2008 and before; 2012 was delayed by a federal court.
54 drops immediately to 52 with the losses in IL and WI. NH may be lost too, dropping to 51. Not much room to maneuver. And no pickup chances, it seems. McC will no longer be majority leader; Schumer will.
Texas lets Cruz hang around for another 2 to 4 weeks.
Cruz might win LA Saturday: its primary is closed for President but not any other offices.
Trump will win POTUS because he's created thousands of jobs and people want America to heal.
As for the House and Senate, their losses will be due to them and their betrayal. Nice of GOP to try and hang that on the top of the ticket but they know better.
How do they write a sentence like that with a straight face?
Trump is set to win 4 more this weekend.
Trump is going to be the nominee.
Cruz is effective aristocrat, not a leader.
Trump is a snowball gaining speed as he rolls downhill. Watch him steamroll through the rest of the primaries.
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