Posted on 02/19/2016 1:20:15 PM PST by usafa92
The South Carolina GOP Presidential primary is not just the "first in the South," it is also the first litmus test for true red state Republican sentiment. In 2008, both Iowa and New Hampshire voted for Barack Obama, while South Carolina remained in the Republican fold. The same thing happened in 2012.
Clemson University's Palmetto Poll has surveyed statewide voters since 1988. Our sample size this time was 650 respondents, from respondents who voted in previous statewide primaries. We estimate the confidence level to be plus or minus 3 percent of the listed figure. Our sample required respondents who had voted in 2 of the past 3 state primary elections to be eligible for inclusion. Slightly less than 10 percent of the calls were to cell phones.
For the first time in the history of the Palmetto Poll, which dates back to the presidential primary of 1988, we predict that the winner of our first poll in the fall of 2015 (October 27th) will win the statewide GOP primary on February 20, 2016. In the fall Palmetto Poll, Donald Trump led the 15 candidates with 23 percent of the respondents' support. Even though slightly more than half of the respondents then said they were undecided about their choice, enough made up their minds now to keep Trump in the lead.
The race for second and fourth seems tight and indicative of the closeness of the contest nationally.
If the primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump 28%
Ted Cruz 19%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 10%
John Kasich 9% Ben Carson 6%
Undecided 13%
(Excerpt) Read more at newsstand.clemson.edu ...
Trump is down somewhat. Too bad.
But... a win is a win, and I will take it.
Being from the south, I find this line pretty funny.
As long as Trump is on top...we’ll take it!!! WOOHOO GO.TRUMP.GO!!!
they never polled people who haven’t voted in a primary before.. they are expecting a huge record turnout Saturday..
Unless folks want Rubio, Trump needs to get his numbers up into the 40s, preferably mid 40s... anything less and in a 3 way race the establishment guy wins.
Unless folks want Rubio, Trump needs to get his numbers up into the 40s, preferably mid 40s... anything less and in a 3 way race the establishment guy wins.
And a win in SC will do a lot to boost Trump elsewhere.
Henry Olsen at National Review (!!) wrote a short piece exposing both the Clemson and Opinion Savvy as understating Trump’s numbers. The former only looks at people who have voted previously in primaries (hence none of Trump’s new voters) and the latter was 50% weighted to “very conservative” when it should be about 35%.
Shocking, but there it is.
GO!
The NBC/WSJ trend confirmed in 2nd poll...Trump is in trouble in SC. And Cruz is running FIVE ads against him today.
Trump bump!!
Read post 8 and stop drinking coffee...
He’s down because they’re not including any new voters. Also not including any crossover voters yet they still predict Trump wins by 9 points.
Polls have been kind of weird. Probably most showing Trump holding strong a couple breaking the other way. Hard to read the tea leaves. But, the overall picture looks pretty good for Trump in SC. I hope Ted Cruz can pull off an upset, which is what you’d have to call it.
SC is huge. ANY win by Trump (or Cruz), even by 0.5%, would yield him a minimum of 29 of the 50 delegates. The more delegates could be had in congressional districts, perhaps 3-5 more.
LOL! Your graphics tickle me. I meant to mention that about the Vatican wall, German girls that way -—> image too.
“Henry Olsen at National Review (!!) wrote a short piece exposing both the Clemson and Opinion Savvy as understating Trump’s numbers.”
http://www.nationalreview.com/2016-gops-four-faces/431622/distrust-latest-sc-gop-polls
Thank you, but the Vatican wall was not mine. It was very funny.
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