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Once again, New Hampshire changes the game.

Winners -

Two stand out tonight, one consequential, the other tangential.

Donald Trump won, and he won convincingly. Which is good for him, because he needed a big, convincing win to match his rhetoric. If winners win, then Trump is a big winner tonight.

John Kasich also won by pulling out a tremendous second place finish. What does this mean for him? Probably nothing more than a vacation in the Palmetto State, but for Trump and Cruz, it means that they won’t have a single establishment candidate to fight against in ten days, they will have two or maybe even three. Kasich, Rubio and Bush will all be down in South Carolina fighting for the establishment vote. What that means for Super Tuesday will be decided once we see if there is a single establishment candidate who comes out on top. BTW, it won’t be Kasich if there is.

Losers -

There were two big losers in tonight’s primary. One directly involved and the other a general idea.

Marco Rubio lost solid momentum faster than any candidate I have ever seen. He went from someone who looked like he might challenge Trump for the win, to a fifth place candidate hoping to stay viable. To say this was a disaster is to say that the Titanic was a watercraft malfunction. He limps into South Carolina not just behind Trump and Cruz, but behind Kasich and (more importantly) Bush.

The second big loser was the GOP establishment. In a New England State, which is the most Republican of all New England States by far, the establishment candidates got a grand total of 45.9% of the vote. If the GOP establishment can’t even get a clear majority in New Hampshire, there is no State that even trends to the GOP in the general election that will see over 50% support for the establishment candidates. There needs to be some serious soul-searching and introspection at the RNC over tonight’s results.

Held their own -

Two candidates did well, but neither fall into the winner or loser category.

Ted Cruz punched his ticket in Iowa, and slipped past any serious damage in New Hampshire to get to South Carolina. He didn’t over-perform like he did in Iowa, but his RCP average for New Hampshire was at 11.8% and he ended up with 11.7%.

Jeb Bush lives another day, or ten days as it were. He was almost a winner just by not under-performing as was expected. His RCP average for New Hampshire was at 11.5% and he ended up with 11.3%.

Fiorina and Christie, thanks for playing, have a nice trip back home. Looks like Carson will be vacationing in South Carolina for the next 10 days, minus trips home for laundry. Jim Gilmore is still missing. If you have seen him, please tell his wife. She is growing concerned.