[AuntB]

“The other 76% couldn’t stand him.”

Same thing can be said of Cruz with a couple points difference!

[Charles Henrickson]

Same thing can be said of Cruz with a couple points difference!

The difference is, almost everyone has heard of Trump, and for a long time, and has already formed a definite opinion about him. And he is more unliked than anyone in the race, and by a mile.

Cruz and Rubio, on the other hand, are in the process of becoming known, and opinions about them could still be formed. They have far more upside than Trump, who has a low ceiling.

[FerociousRabbit]

Same thing can be said of Cruz with a couple points difference!

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No, not at all. Few of the candidates began with universal name recognition. Their supporters are fungible. As their preferred candidates drop out, those supporters will coalesce around other candidates with one notable exception. Trump.

He has the highest unfavorables, meaning his upside is severely limited. The other candidates have much greater upside as they have much higher favorables.

In the end it will come down to Cruz and Rubio and Trump. Unfortunately, Rubio’s strategy is quite sound, 3-2-1. Third in Iowa, 2nd in NH and 1st in SC. He took 3rd in Iowa. He is now at 2nd in most polls in NH and will get the Christy, Kasich and Bush supporters when they drop out heading into SC.

The SEC will be a three man race with each candidate sharing about a third of the electorate. Trump’s support is dipping slightly so if he underperformed in NH it will be a Cruz/Rubio fight to the end.