I think it's some kind of hopey-changey funk.
Posted on 01/30/2016 5:17:52 AM PST by dangus
Reading some threads, I see Cruz folks starting to sound like they're starting to buy the Trump Big Lie that Trump "won" the debate, and knocked Cruz out. Don't believe it for a second.
I can't be specific what I'm referring to. We'll just have to say it's interesting data from "a friend."
What I am seeing is national, not relating to Iowa specifically. And it's not a cross-section of Republicans, but it probably is a pretty good barometer of conservatives.
Based on what I'm seeing, Rubio is going absolutely, positively nowhere, and Trump is going downhill. Pretty big. Maybe not the final implosion, but MUCH bigger than just the day-to-day noise.
Combine this with the fact that we're not seeing any surge in voting registration in Iowa*, indicating that (sadly) Trump is NOT motivating huge new blocks of voters, and I don't know how he can win... unless Cruz people get disheartened by the nonsense being pumped out by Politico, CNN, and all the other left-wing Trump lovers.
(*Again, this is not a tell-all. Last-minute registrations and simply activating existing registered voters could be plenty to bring about astounding voter turnout. But it is a dog that's not barking. New registrations have in the past correlated with surges in caucus participation.)
LIke I said in the headline, “Trumpeters free to disbelieve it if they want.”
>> The only thing that will stop him in Iowa is a big big blizzard. <<]
Oh, so I see you’ve already settled on the excuse. That’s efficient.
Like I implied, the post says literally nothing of substance.
I’m interested in what’s going in on this election.
I truly want to know details.
But when people pop a headline that indicates information is available, but then provide none - I, and many others, are naturally frustrated.
It’s a nothing post.
You probably believe that wrestling is real..don’t you.
I think it's some kind of hopey-changey funk.
Friends don't let friends vote Cruz.
Here’s your answer; WEATHER will decide Iowa 2016.
To think those fighting in WW II thought they were securing freedom for the next generation while some of that very same “greatest generation” we’re thinking up ways to undermine their efforts.
2nd guy in two minutes telling me that. Sounds like Trumpeters have gotten the word that turnout will NOT be the explosion they’ve been counting on, and that if they lose they should blame the weather.
I’m inclinded to disagree.
But recent history shows that republican voters are drawn to poor candidates, so it may happen!
Second if you would actually go look at a weather forecast then you would not be so cavalier about it.
Third I grew up in Iowa.
Oh and I still have family all over the State. You want to know what they say? Weather will decide the outcome.
And lets talk about the aforementioned lack of surge in New voter registrations...
Simple facts.
In 2012 there were about 121,500 people who caucused as Republicans.
That is just shy of 20% of the registered republicans in IA (just over 600,000).
As of Thursday at least 3,000 people in Iowa had switched from democratic or no affiliation to republican.
IA allows same day registration and party re-affiliation for the caucuses.
The analysis then becomes quite subjective. Do we judge the 3k switches, and another 3k of new registrants against the 120k, or against the 600k? Most believe party changes are more likely to caucus, but new registrants are hard to judge in terms of commitment to actually vote.
And of course, we won’t know the same day registrations until caucus day.
Could 3 pct change the outcome? Romney lost by fewer votes than that.
In the end it will of course be about turn out. The Cruz team clearly knows this based on some of the recent ‘voter encouragement’ mailers. The Trump team knows this as well. Laudner rented extra space for the phone banks.
Conventional wisdom says the Cruz supporters come from the historically most reliable caucus blocks, so his support is in general considered rock solid. But conventional wisdom has yet to predict anything of substance in this race.
We will know soon enough.
When you have something of actual substance that would be of interest to people who care about this race please ping me. Real actual information, regardless of who would deem it good news, is what I seek.
“Cruz promoting voter fraud in Iowa”
Didn’t bother to listen to the whole quote, did you? “Bring 9 friends with you”. Or are you just purposely spreading half truths? I don’t see any third possibility.
It's been interesting to watch the media's hands move....and once again position candidates they want "stories" on or can develop "stories" about to engage the public.
Am so glad I gave Cruz a strong look see beforehand and with that I also decided anything he/his campaign did or said throughout this primary I'd give lots of room for whatever to win because we do know how nasty things can get....and we do know who the media is and what they do to frame every word spoken as well as even not spoken......
STILL there has not been one vote cast......nor counted. It remains be seen as well who gets what delegates. So there's nothing that can shake my support of Cruz for the win.....all the rest is theater for all until count.
Go Ted Go!!!!
May you have a great day also!
You’re getting bogged down in the swamps. Trump COULD totally get a hundred thousand same-day registrants. But the point is not that Trump has already failed to draw people in. It’s simply that there is a dog that ain’t barking: We’re seeing weak data from the registration data we already have. And that suggests a lack of interest.
There is no real information here to believe or disbelieve, FRiend.
I am the subject of the sentence. The sentence is about me. ;-P
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