Posted on 01/20/2016 9:51:55 AM PST by Leaning Right
If you care to, make a prediction as to where the Dow will bottom out, along with a defense of your answer. Who knows, if you hit it right on the nose CNBC might offer you your own show.
The economy will struggle and, eventually I think, collapse. Meanwhile the US stock markets are the least unsafe place in the world to put your money. It is being beaten down so that when the flight capital starts rolling in in earnest from Europe, the ME and Asia, all of which are in much worse shape than the US, a lot of money will be made by those who buy up what frightened amateur investors are dumping at the bottom.
I’m seriously thinking about buying some Conoco and Exxon. Oil will go back to $100 a barrel when the last domestic producer goes belly up and Obama kills any pipeline deal. Then OPEC will have us by the short hairs again.
Are you on margin?
Beware of that Italian dude, Fibonacci.
You might be underestimating the ingenuity of central governments. Some politicians in Europe are now talking about negative interest rates. So could a negative Dow be that impossible?
Just kidding (I hope).
It will bottom out exactly at the point at which I get tired of the losses and move my money out.
At that point, it will begin climbing, with no apparent economic fundamentals supporting that climb, convincing me not to move my money back in.
It will climb to record highs, and I’ll have lost tens of thousands of dollars.
How do I know?
Happened to me in 2009.
In 1929 the DJIA bottomed at $198.69. Adjusted for inflation that would be $2782.81 in 2015 dollars.
No. I am not a trader. I Bought Kodiak Oil 3 years ago. Kodiak did well and was purchased by Whiting late last year. I didn’t want to sell and pay taxes for 2015. When oil slowly declined, I thought it would be back. My assumption was that Bakken companies would be helped by Middle East volatility. Whiting financed the purchase of Kodiak and is having debt problems and will likely have to start selling assets, which will further destroy the stock.
Gulp. I have a significant amount of my savings in the markets. I’m a long-term investor, so I’m not about to sell low right now... hope I don’t regret that.
About 5% of my investments are in oil. Might be less when I check prices at the end of the day. No point in selling now.
I wouldn’t touch oil right now. I have a large (for me at least) holding in Whiting. I should have sold it last year.
$11,000 +-
Oil will go back up. The Saudis can’t keep selling at a loss forever. Those who think some miracle alternative energy source will be the end of oil are too early, unless the Vulcans finally reveal themselves and give us the new technology that eliminates the need for petroleum.
Stay in and buy low cannot be done at the same time. You must be out in order to buy back in low. I took a cash position some time back and will start buying back in after I see 14,500 DJIA.
“I predict the market will go to...42!”
That answers....EVERYTHING!
You’re right, oil will go back up but it may take three years to get there. In the mean time, Bakken companies will be starved to death.
This sell off is to fast and too large, emotionally driven. It won’t have legs. The worst sell off are the drip drip drip selloffs, -1% here -2% there, over a period of months/years.
Gonna live on your good looks when you get old? /s
I trade energy a lot. I’m not touching it right now. The oil market is not trading as it should. Something is up. Charts that are normally reliable are a mess.
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