Posted on 01/13/2016 9:26:11 AM PST by conservativejoy
In the Des Moines Register poll, Cruz has a three point lead. Likewise, in the newest ABC News poll, Cruz has the highest popularity among Republican voters, which Gallup's polling also reflects.
The problem for Cruz is that the polling average in Iowa has him tied with Trump. He is at 26.7%, while Trump is at 26.2%. It is a very close race.
There are, however, some anecdotes for Cruz to take comfort in, though anecdote is not data. Other campaigns are beginning to admit Cruz has outworked them on the ground in Iowa. He has operations in every county, he has Steve King's endorsement, he has Bob Vander Plaats's endorsement, and he has the highest popularity. Likewise, at a recent Trump rally, media reports suggest only about five percent of the attendees said they were going to the caucus. There is some data to back up the anecdotes in that several people familiar with polling among three campaigns tell me Cruz's voters are most likely to go to the caucus.
That is related to the Trump weakness in Iowa. He is attracting large crowds and attracting voters, but they tend to be non-traditional, non-caucus going voters. They are going to have to turn out at a pretty high rate for Trump to win. In fact, they are going to have to turn out at a rate they have never turned out before for Trump to win.
But Cruz has a weakness too.
The establishment of the GOP has begun making peace with Trump. They believe they can beat him if they finish off Cruz in Iowa. A number of Republican establishmentarians have begun privately rooting for Trump and in some cases trying to help him in Iowa. They believe that Trump can be beaten by Rubio or, in the worse case scenario, reasoned with once Cruz is gone.
The Republican Establishment is vastly more worried about its own skin in the game than about policy or principle. They think Trump, should he be the nominee, will go left and they will be able to use him. Remember, these are the same people who really thought the base of the party would be excited if the GOP looked angrily at Obama without actually doing anything.
Everyone is out to get Cruz in Iowa except two guys, it seems. The only two who have said a kind word about Ted Cruz lately are Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. Both have defended Cruz on the birther issue. Both of their campaigns seem to understand that they'd rather Cruz come out of Iowa than Trump. And right now, Rubio looks like he will finish third in Iowa hoping that, headed into New Hampshire and South Carolina, Cruz and Trump finish each other off.
Erick Erickson is so stupid. The Des Moines Register has Cruz dropping 6 points into a statistical tie in Iowa. The MOE was 4.4 points. But “Cruz is in the lead again!”, then he undermines himself by showing the tie in their average polling.
Erick Erickson and his gay Red State are not even hiding anymore that they hate Trump and are willing to pimp for any candidate they can find.
To every thing, spin spin spin
Rush says look at her appearances Matt Lauer criticizing Trump
But going after Obama is not her style?
DMR has it only a 3 point race where it was 10 a month ago...ruh roh....
Erik Erickson has been gone from Red State for over a month.
Really? I wouldn't know. I don't read trash RINO websites.
“Erik Erickson has been gone from Red State for over a month.”
He is still Erik Erickson, and he still campaigns against Trump and he still campaigns for Cruz.
... Erick Erickson is so stupid. The Des Moines Register has Cruz dropping 6 points into a statistical tie in Iowa. The MOE was 4.4 points. But “Cruz is in the lead again!â€, then he undermines himself by showing the tie in their average polling.
Erick Erickson and his gay Red State are not even hiding anymore that they hate Trump and are willing to pimp for any candidate they can find.
You can’t handle the truth.
45% polled have unfavorable opinion of DT versus 19% Cruz.
Those polled who did not have trump or Ted as 1 or 2nd:
19% would never vote Cruz.
41% would never vote Trump.
Combined first and second choice:
Cruz 48%.
Trump 33%.
You have mastered your hero’s Alinksy tactics: Degrade all who disagree with you.
Yep. GOPe “making peace with Trump.” Signs are everywhere that this is true for those paying attention.
Now why would that be?
Because he’s not all that conservative maybe?
Because they don’t think he can’t beat Hillary and they’d rather have Hillary?
Or Both?
GOPe favors trump. That’s the bottom line. Do you want to be voting with the GOPe?
How about, they know that they could come to an accommodation with trump. Paul and nancy and mitch and harry and harry and donald in a room together, cutting a deal.
Cruz has the best ground game and has outraised all other candidates.
Were they ever at war? (Really?)
Because he’s not all that conservative maybe?
Bingo!!!
Because they don’t think he can’t beat Hillary and they’d rather have Hillary?
Likely. Then they can do their sham votes and make their empty promises and when they get called on it, they blame not having the White House.
“They believe that Trump can be beaten by Rubio”
Got it.
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