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Steve Deace is carrying Cruz’s water in Iowa so I’d expect a rosy scenario here. And suspiciously, I just read the same drivel on Red State comparing Trump to Howard Dean which seems to be the new mantra of the establishment. Isn’t that something that Mr. Conservative Steve Deace is spouting the same exact words as Leon Wolf, a known establishment Trump hater at Red State? It’s not possible that Cruz and Deace are really part of the establishment is it?

What’s to stop IA from voting for Ben Carson ???

Rubio and Fiorina could siphon of a few votes too...

Jebbie could get 5% or so..

Rand Paul is still in the race...

Huckabee could take some too...

the rest might get 1% or so theres about 10 of them...

I think Trump should get the most votes but it could be Cruz..

at this point its anyones guess...

Cruz’ people and Trump’s people will be immovable at the caucuses. Carson’s people may also be immovable,a nd Carson will remain good for 10%. Fiorina may hold her 5% or so because her voters know they are floating her for VP. She doesn’t need delegates, just a showing. The Christie, Kasich and John Ellis Bush people (<5%) are going to be pressured at the caucuses by the Rubio people to join up with Rubio as the only way to stop the Trump/Cruz train. I expect Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina, and asterisks for John Ellis Bush, Kasich and Christie. The handful Huck/Santorum supporters will go with either Cruz or their original candidate, again for VP visibility or just plain stubbornness.

It’s all turnout. Trump has the populist fervor, but it may turn out that Cruz has huge groundwork that goes unnoticed until the day after the election.

Either way, I see both candidates killing Hillary in the election. I think Trump my take NY state from Hillary and thus flip the electoral to over 310-330.

I just hope Bernie gets pissed and runs third party. The DNC would have to take him out to have any of their down-ballot candidates win.

I think it’s a foregone conclusion Cruz will win in Iowa...

Trump will finish second...which because it’s a caucus is a strong showing...

caucuses take a LOT of early ground game and I don’t think Trump was on top of it as well as people think...

If I know Trump, he will take a second place finish and learn from it and move on...rather than pull a Dean...

Calling Iowans stupid was not his finest moment

Rubio needs to knock Christie out in Iowa, otherwise his chances of emerging post-New Hampshire as the clear establishment choice could be mortally wounded.

I am hoping this will not happen. Fortunately, I don't think it's likely. Iowa is simply irrelevant to Christie's strategy. No one is going to dismiss Christie over Iowa, and Christie is not going to give up over a state that is so different from his appeal, not when he's hoping to see Cruz and/or Trump self-destruct, and he's hoping to see Jeb and/or Rubio give up after an irredeemable failure. Christie is not on the spot, so a low level of support doesn't harm him the way that it would harm Jeb or Rubio. Christie's strategy is to be the white knight who rescues the GOP establishment after their top two choices crash and burn. It's not a bad strategy, but it requires staying in the race.

Especially if Trump were to react to such a defeat with a meltdown that makes Howard Dean's scream look like the Gettysburg Address . . . Let's say turnout in Iowa on February 1st reaches a new record of 150,000 voters . . . Trump receives a monstrous 70% of those 25,000 new voters. That probably won't happen, either, but for the sake of argument let's just say that it does.

A Trump meltdown is extremely unlikely. He will have people coaching him through how to handle the results, regardless of what is happening, and his instincts are generally pretty good. He'll handle it well, even if Cruz beats him convincingly.

Also, I think Trump getting 70% of "new" voters is likely an underestimate. Ignoring "new" voters who are simply the people who would have voted without Trump and are essentially keeping the Iowa caucus demographic stable, Trump gets nearly 100% of the genuinely new voters. The real question is how many new voters he can bring in, and I don't think anyone outside the Trump campaign knows (and perhaps not even inside his campaign). I wish I could say that anger at Washington will bring in new Cruz voters, but it won't. The Cruz voters are productive Americans, and not enough of them have the time for the caucus process. Cruz needs the traditional caucus voters and a traditional ground game to bring in his traditional share of those voters.