Posted on 12/12/2015 11:36:28 AM PST by Jim W N
Will the Dodgers miss the playoffs next year?
The question gained a significant amount of gravity Friday, as the Dodgers received word that Zack Greinke wouldn't return next season.
Greinke agreed to a six-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Greinke's departure figures to be a setback for the Dodgers, whose rotation now consists of Clayton Kershaw and a series of wild cards.
Greinke finished second this year in voting for the Cy Young Award, close behind Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
Greinke is making $34 million a year. Who do you think will be the first $40 million a year player. (I have an idea who it’s likely to be.)
A fundamental principle of Sabermetrics.
Your math is good he’s over paid and yet sports fans whine about Ceo’s income who really do something for a living.
...
I suppose running a company into the ground and then being paid $80 million to leave is “something.”
The good news is that if you get back under it, even for just a year, it reverts to the 17.5 percent rate. this is why the Yankees are off free agents for now. They have $100 million coming off the books the next couple of offseasons (Teixeira and Beltran after this coming season, Sabathia and Rodriguez after 2017), and they want to use their young players, lower the payroll, and get under $189 million.
No one pays to watch a doctor, surgeon, business owner, lawyer, plumber electrician and/or virtually anyone else do their work. People pay good money to watch baseball players do theirs.
Yep.
Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers know they’re overpaying and wasting half of huge contracts. The don’t care about the risk.
It’s a little surprising from the D’backs. Might cost Dave Stewart his job in a couple years, or they might get lucky.
The players who are getting hurt the most are the good, not great, veterans, the backups, the utility players, and the like. Why pay $3-4 million for those guys when you can get almost as good a performance from some rookie making the league minimum (which is quite generous.)
If the Diamondbacks contend for three or four seasons of Greinke’s contract and the attendance and the TV and radio ratings increase, he’ll make that money back for them. Tehre is no way on Earth that your backup catcher or your utility infielder can make back his salary.
Performance bonuses are specifically against the rules, although there are ways around that. Perhaps profit-sharing? (i.e., the more money the team makes, the more the players make.)
I have long advocated that the teams put up money to fund an office at MLB whose specific function is to get the players endorsements. If they make substantial money off the field, perhaps they won’t need to make quite so much on it.
Find other ways to get them more money without it always costing the owners (who then pass it on to the fans.)
The Yankees have been pretty fiscally responsible (in baseball terms) lately.
The “luxury tax” is joke. The day they signed that CBA Steinbrenner said “this changes everything” and then proceeded to make signings that increased his team’s salary by over 100 million dollars. That is not a salary cap.
Yep. Even the Yankees have limits.
George was one thing. The sons are another. The luxury tax is restraining their spending, which was the point of it.
So a 4 WAR would be worth $32 million.
Something like that, yes. In theory.
ESPN lists Greinke with a WAR of over 9 for 2015!
I remember his WAR from a year or two ago.
I’m not a fantasy player so I don’t keep up with the exact details, but I do find the general trends interesting.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/war/leaders
The luxury tax isn’t restraining their spending. Realizing that they’ve been grossly overpaying for talent lately and haven’t even gotten a whiff of a championship in 6 year and clearly need to rebuild the team is restraining their spending. And that’s only because you don’t rebuild a team paying huge some to aging veterans. They’ll be back to their spendy ways, they’re the Yankees, they have enough revenue that the luxury tax is completely meaningless to them. Any “cap” that isn’t a hard cap is a joke. The Yanks have been proving that for a quarter of a century and they will resume proving that as soon as they have a team that’s actually talented and worth spending money on.
They have $100 million coming off teh books in the next two offseasons, and they are not planning to lay out nearly that much. They’ve been making a deliberate effort to get younger and more athletic (and thus cheaper) and to rely on their homegrown talent.
The Yankees pay a 50 percent luxury tax rate and have for a while. The 1996 World Champions had the #10 payroll in baseball. They’ve publicly said, “You don’t need to have a $200 million payroll to win.”
So they’ve started going to homegrown players like Severino, Bird, Heathcott, Mason Williams, Romine, Sanchez, and others, with others such as Aaron Judge and Jorge Mateo on the way. They’ve surrounded that core with an “outer core” of younger, more athletic, cheaper players like Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro, Aaron Hicks, Nathan Eovaldi, Tanaka, Pineda, and others.
If they can get under $189 MM in 2018, they reset the luxury tax rate from the current 50 percent back to 17.5 percent, which makes a lot more money available as their players win, gain experience, and grow into higher salaries.
They aren’t planning to NOW, because they don’t have the players to spend the money on. But once those younger more athletic players get old enough for their second and third contracts the Yanks will be 100 million over the “cap” in a jiffy.
Never believe the words. The words are a lie. Believe the actions. The actions are that the Yankees don’t give a damn about the cap and as soon as they have players they feel are worth spending the money on they spend it. They can afford the luxury tax, so they don’t worry about it. Saying they won’t do that now is just hoping to catch other teams off guard later. Even you admit it, the players WILL grow into the higher salaries, and those salaries WILL be over the “cap”.
Dunno, but I think the diamondbacks may have bought themselves a ticket to a winning playoff season. To do the same, the Giants need some better pitchers, much more than hitters.
Dunno the Giants’ budget but if you factored in deep playoff revenues with some chances at the World Series, maybe it would have been worth it.
How would a WAR of 4 or so make Greinke worth it for the Giants. Would that be four years of playoff baseball and sellout seasons?
Win Above Replacement (Player) is strictly statistical analysis.
I believe the idea is that an average team will have a record of 81W - 81L. If that average team replaces an exactly average player with a player with a WAR of 4, the expected result would be a team record of 85W - 77L.
The average cost of one Win-Above-Replacement is calculated to be around $8 million for this next season.
It’s more complicated than that, but that’s the idea.
WAR is one of those stats that drives up salaries for above-average players.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.