Why there will never be a year of the Linux desktop

ZD Net ^ | 29 September 2015 | Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

[ShadowAce]

I love the Linux desktop. As far as I'm concerned, the Linux Mint 17.2 is the best desktop around. Heck, I was once editor-in-chief of a website called Linux Desktop. But today, I believe there's no way the Linux desktop will ever become the top desktop operating system.

The Linux desktop, here Mint 17.2 with Cinnamon, is great, but it will never be popular the way Windows was.

That's right. There will be no "Year of the Linux desktop."

Oh, don't get me wrong, Linux, as Android tablets and smartphones and Chrome OS Chromebooks, will become the most popular end-user operating system of all. But, the desktop? That's another story.

Android devices and Chromebooks are great. I have a Samsung Galaxy 5 by my side. My favorite laptop is the top-of-the-line, with a price-tag to match, 2015 Chromebook Pixel. Neither are conventional desktops.

Chrome OS, just like Windows 10, can work without an Internet connection or the cloud, but both only really show to their best advantage with their respective clouds. They are both hybrid desktop/cloud operating systems.

You can see where I'm going. I think Linux can't possibly become the top desktop operating system because traditional desktops are on their way out.

It's not just simply that PC sales have been taking a beating for years, although that is true. We are entering a time when the Internet is as vital for PCs and laptops as hard drives used to be.

Indeed, look at Chromebooks: Most of them get by with mere 32 GB solid-state drives (SSD)s. Why? Because Google offers a minimum of 100GBs of free Google Drive storage for two years with each device. In the case of the Pixel, you get a Terabyte of storage for three years. On Microsoft's side, Office 365 subscribers get unlimited OneDrive storage.

Local storage? Who needs local storage?

Google and Microsoft both say you don't, and they're winning.

Apple is taking Mac OS X to the cloud, but as anyone who has suffered with iCloud knows, Apple has a way to go.

Looking ahead, I see 90 percent and more of users working with hybrid desktop/cloud operating systems. Most people are already well on their way to not using conventional desktop and laptops at all. This trend, even as tablet sales slow, will only continue.

There will be a few people who will still use conventional desktops. These are the ones who want real control over their hardware and software. They're the ones who want real security. In short, they're the same people who are already using Linux.

So, by 2020, in a very limited way, Linux may be the top "desktop" operating system. It's just that there won't be many traditional desktops left in use. Everyone else will be working with one foot in the cloud and the other in a variety of devices, some of which, like Chromebooks and Surfaces, will look like desktops.

[ShadowAce]

There will be a few people who will still use conventional desktops. These are the ones who want real control over their hardware and software. They're the ones who want real security. In short, they're the same people who are already using Linux.

That's me.

[ShadowAce]

[ThunderSleeps]

Ditto. I like that control, and I'm typing this from a Linux Mint desktop...

It's hard to disagree with his outlook.

[NewHampshireDuo]

Yup. All of my internet work except for some very specialized things is done on Linux.

[Mr. K]

Until Linux stop coming out with these weirdly named versions and produces a coherent way to install that even grandma can do, it will NEVER take over the desktop

It’s a shame because it is clearly a superior operating system.

But it suffers from the same problem I see in the workplace. Programmers (who go home and do online battle in their mom’s basement with the name “DeathWarrior”) believe they are too superior to want to enjoy mass-market appeal.

This smugness over their operating system’s superiority because early in the Unix days and persisted as Apple and Microsoft leapt into multi $trillion dollar powerhouse positions.

I write software for a living- I would RATHER program for Linux, but it is far more difficult than programming for Windows. Even though it is older and better.

We’ve had to fire more than a few of these people for their smug behavior, in the face of reality.

[JRandomFreeper]

Yep. There will never be one desktop for me. I'll use whatever works best at that particular task.

I don't understand why there has to be just one desktop. Seems silly to me.

I don't take a sports car to Lowes. Wrong tool for the job.

Everyone chasing a single, perfect, desktop is chasing shadows.

/johnny

[Dr. Sivana]

I think Linux can't possibly become the top desktop operating system because traditional desktops are on their way out.

Nope. Those of us who do REAL work need faster access than an internet pipe will give us. Many of us also have to do work even when the Inetrnet goes down.

Get back to me when a streaming Amazon movie streams properly on a 30mb connection consistently.

Oh, Windows 10 works FINE without cloud. I run Windows 10 with NO MS account. Not all of us are ready to give up the idea of a personal computer.

[McGruff]

I’ve got a question for you Linux experts. I want to install Mint along side my current WinXP, Windows 7 and Windows 10 installations on the same PC but keep windows boot manager and not use Mints. Is there a way to do that? I’ve setup another partition just for Linux (70 gBytes) but I don’t want Mint to take over the boot menu.

[GingisK]

It's hard to disagree with his outlook.

Popular consent, almost never right, usually wins the technology race. That is the ONLY reason that Intel CPUs triumphed over the 68000 class machine.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

Thaf would make Eclipse the leading development environment. Microsoft has that market cornered. Xcode and Eclipse are the bastard step child of AD. They work but V Studio is nearly perfect and developers do care.

[ShadowAce]

That is the ONLY reason that Intel CPUs triumphed over the 68000 class machine.

Uh--no.

The main reason is that Apple kept a *very* short leash on programmers for that chip (they were the only ones using it). With x86 being more open and available, it became more popular.

[Bikkuri]

He mentioned he is using chrome.. and android, where does Linux fit in? (The Unix base doesn’t fit in..)..
Honestly, I don’t care if the rest of the world doesn’t use it... it is still the most secure OS in the world.. (no matter what the Mac fan-boyz say... Mac/Apple is still based on Unix)...

[chrisser]

Am I the only person left in America who thinks having data and apps primarily in the cloud in a business environment is a bad idea?

[circlecity]

"Nope. Those of us who do REAL work need faster access than an internet pipe will give us. Many of us also have to do work even when the Inetrnet goes down."

Absolutely. When I want to get work done I prefer the desktop computer. Also, I use the Cloud mostly for backup and to keep my work folders on various computers synchronized. Everything saved to the cloud is also saved to an identically named local folder.

[Bikkuri]

Oh, and Mint, in y opinion, is still the best and easiest to install (and the best for crossover from Windows..).

[ShadowAce]

Try this guide

[ShadowAce]

ChromeOS and Android are both Linux

[Dr. Sivana]

Chromebook sales this year: 7 million
Desktop and Notebook sales this year: 317 million

Let’s see:
In 1997 the thin client was supposed to kill the PC.
In 2008 the Netbook was supposed to kill the PC.
In 2012 the Tablet was supposed to kill the PC.

Phones, tablets mini and maxi, iPod Touches, Nettops, Chromebooks, appliances, all have their place. For most of us, a Chromebook can no more be our main computer than a Nissan Leaf can be our main car.

[AppyPappy]

Our new mainframe will be Linux

[ShadowAce]

Nope, but sometimes it sure seems that we are alone.