Long range weather outlook for upcoming winter season

wgrz ^ | 9-18-2015

[Citizen Zed]

October, November and most of December are still Autumn, right?

[Blood of Tyrants]

They can’t accurately predict the weather 10 days out and now they are predicting it months in advance?

[laweeks]

They still can’t correctly predict tomorrow’s weather. Why does anyone pay attention to these “long range weather outlooks”?

[Paladin2]

They are part of the next Water Year.

[doc1019]

I predict that G_d’s sense of humor will kick in and make all these predictions null and void. Much like all the snowstorms that seem to occur in any city the global warming crowd throws a shindig.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Pointless prognosticating for the Finger Lakes Region...

[jmacusa]

Yes. Winter begins on Dec. 21. As to what kind of winter we’re going to have..... I venture a guess and say.. cold!.

[null and void]

Name me, ping me...

[huldah1776]

what does the Farmer’s Almanac say?

[Mastador1]

They can’t accurately predict the weather 10 days out and now they are predicting it months in advance?

Hell here in SoCal they can't even get the next day right. For the last ten days every prediction has been off temp wise, always predicting 5-10 degrees cooler than what we get.

[Daffynition]

Redux

[Parley Baer]

This guy must listen to Joe Bastardi who will be posted here tomorrow. Joe has been saying this is more like the 57-58 El Nino versus the 97 El Nino everyone else has been pushing. Joe is way ahead of the curve.

[Georgia Girl 2]

We go by the Farmer’s Almanac which is predicting another cold winter just like last year. I think they are supposed to be right about 80% of the time. :-)

[metmom]

IOW, they just don’t know and they’re using a lot of words to say so and yet sound intelligent and like they know what they’re talking about.

[VTenigma]

I’d love to see a nice Indian summer through Nov this year, we’re due. Been pretty nice so far. I’d rather not blow through 14 cord of wood again this year, last winter sucked.

[steve86]

It is sometimes easier to predict a general seasonal trend in certain geographic areas (like the Pacific Northwest where I am) than a given day next week. The developing El Nino is a good example of that.

[Steely Tom]

As I read it, they’re covered whichever way it turns out.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

That’s what I read, too. Either warmer than normal or colder than normal; either wetter than normal or drier than normal. Maybe all the two-handed economists got tired of being wrong all the time and switched to meteorology.

[jonno]

Bookmark - we’ll see...

[daniel1212]

We go by the Farmer’s Almanac which is predicting another cold winter just like last year. I think they are supposed to be right about 80% of the time. :-)

If they do so say themselves, but accuracy should presuppose a degree of precision, http://news.psu.edu/story/141165/2007/09/24/research/probing-question-farmers-almanac-accurate >

John Walsh, University of Illinois Atmospheric Sciences professor emeritus, reviewed the accuracy of five years of monthly forecasts from 32 weather stations around the county and found 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts and 51.9% of precipitation forecasts to correctly predict a deviation from averages.[32][33] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Farmer's_Almanac#Accuracy