Thank you for carrying this to its logical conclusion.
This referendum vote makes little sense. How many people will vote for austerity? Of course, I base my assumptions on what I see here in the US.
I can see why the Europeans are jumpy. Not only from a financial standpoint...but from a security standpoint.
Put yourself in this point....a very complicated bail-out deal which you have maybe five days to read over. For ninety-nine percent of Greek society, I think it’s way beyond their comprehension level. So, you end up listening to your political party. Oh, but by the way....there are at least twenty significant political parties in Greece. So each has a different take on the bail-out.
Based on European papers that I’ve read....I’m guessing it’s a 55-to-60 percent ‘no’ vote on Sunday.
Oddly, which you’d think this would matter....but NO one has stood and said what happens after the ‘no’ vote. Most Americans would ask about consequences and what happens next if this occurs. You don’t see that in Greece. For this reason....I’m skeptical of what the yes or no really means.
So, I’ll predict this. No wins. Monday, no banks open in Greece. The ‘haircut’ takes place with accounts over 8,000 Euro consumed by the banks. Local business folks go nuts. Somewhere along the 15th of July....the government steps down because of chaos in the streets. A new election is called for and has to occur within three weeks. July and August, there is massive turmoil, and there’s finally a military coup held by late August. Journalists will stand there shocked but everyone in Greece will agree....democracy doesn’t work. The bail-out conditions stipulated by the EU will be accepted. And tens of thousands of retirees will be called and have their pensions whacked on. By summer of 2016, a million Greeks will have packed up and left the country because it’s a miserable situation.