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Put yourself in this point....a very complicated bail-out deal which you have maybe five days to read over. For ninety-nine percent of Greek society, I think it’s way beyond their comprehension level. So, you end up listening to your political party. Oh, but by the way....there are at least twenty significant political parties in Greece. So each has a different take on the bail-out.

Based on European papers that I’ve read....I’m guessing it’s a 55-to-60 percent ‘no’ vote on Sunday.

Oddly, which you’d think this would matter....but NO one has stood and said what happens after the ‘no’ vote. Most Americans would ask about consequences and what happens next if this occurs. You don’t see that in Greece. For this reason....I’m skeptical of what the yes or no really means.

So, I’ll predict this. No wins. Monday, no banks open in Greece. The ‘haircut’ takes place with accounts over 8,000 Euro consumed by the banks. Local business folks go nuts. Somewhere along the 15th of July....the government steps down because of chaos in the streets. A new election is called for and has to occur within three weeks. July and August, there is massive turmoil, and there’s finally a military coup held by late August. Journalists will stand there shocked but everyone in Greece will agree....democracy doesn’t work. The bail-out conditions stipulated by the EU will be accepted. And tens of thousands of retirees will be called and have their pensions whacked on. By summer of 2016, a million Greeks will have packed up and left the country because it’s a miserable situation.

That is an interesting and possible scenario.

The only thing in your post I disagree with is...”Most Americans would ask about consequences...”. If there are 20 political parties in Greece, and I don't doubt that at all, most will vote for an easy fix. You know, like hope and change and free condoms and free Obamaphones. I am going to assume most people on the dole in Greece are much like those here.

They won't think about HOW things will be accomplished. Given that scenario, I think the European newspapers are correct...a no vote.

I spoke with my cousins in Athens on Monday (yes voters). They are asking just the question you posed, “What next?” They are, however, professionals. Yesterday the BBC had a discussion among Greek millennials, all professionals, and a Greek American journalist, also a millennial. They all asked the same question, but also predicted a yes vote. Personally, I think it will be a yes vote. If I thought a no vote would cause the fall of the Syriza government, however, I might be recommending that the cousins vote that way. I've always thought going on the Euro was a bad idea for Greece.

BTW, quite aside from Greece's future in NATO and the West, no one thusfar has talked about what might be the greatest European consequence of a Grexit, the abrogation of the EU treaties, especially the one which forces Greece to close its borders with the rest of Europe to any refugee migrants. Greece right now has the highest or second highest number of mohammedan refugees in Europe, all of whom want to get to Northern Europe, especially Germany, France and Sweden. Right now Greece has to keep them and not let them cross into Europe. The day after Greece leaves the EU, or even the euro zone for that matter, its a good bet what little money Greece has left will be used to send the mohammedans on their merry way to Angela's happy Deutschland!

Perceptive post.

It will be interesting to see how long they can keep the banks closed. They can't reopen until they have the currency to repay their depositors and they don't have enough Euros to do that. If the troika doesn't bail them out again those Euro accounts will not be repaid.

A modern economy cannot survive long without a payment system. No payment system, no stock market, no business, no jobs. The only way out is to issue their own currency. Simply declare that your Euro deposit is now a Drachma deposit. They can create as many of those as they want.