I really don’t think blackmails at work here.
If it was, Roberts could have voted with Scalia and the subsidies would have still survived on a 5-4 majority vote. In fact if he was being blackmailed thats how he should have voted; there was no need for a 6-3 vote and he would have partially restored the credibility lost with the earlier decision.
Here’s what I think is at work here, which may be worse than blackmail: Roberts may have a greater affinity and loyalty to the Court than the Constitution. There seems to be a big theme in his rulings and public statements thus far that he’s concerned that the Court is seen as too partisan. Which undermines it’s institutional credibility.
So he refuses to let it be the punching bag on the big issues. It can’t be seen as the one that tore down Obama’s signature program. If/when Obama’s signature program collapses it can’t be seen as the one that pushed it over the cliff.
In fact, as I said in the discussions yesterday, I think Roberts may have very well joined the majority so that, as Chief Justice, he could appoint himself to write the majority opinion and seed it with those very ideas.
I think the only reason the vote was 6-3 is that Kennedy is giving Roberts cover here in exchange for a 6-3 vote on gay marriage. I’m betting that majority vote will be the same as Scotuscare. Kennedy will not have to take the heat for being the deciding vote if Roberts votes with him.