I think the only reason the vote was 6-3 is that Kennedy is giving Roberts cover here in exchange for a 6-3 vote on gay marriage. I’m betting that majority vote will be the same as Scotuscare. Kennedy will not have to take the heat for being the deciding vote if Roberts votes with him.
Sure, can’t rule that out either. Justice Blackmun’s released papers clearly show that there’s a lot of negotiating and horse-trading behind the scenes on the Court. The ones on how Kennedy became the 5th vote on preserving Roe v Wade are particularly enlightening.
But we’ll have to differ here. Yes I think that same sex marriage will be 6-3, but because Roberts will be motivated not to have that significant a social change happen on a 5-4 ruling. Just like how Earl Warren worked so hard to avoid a close decision on Brown v Board of Ed.