Dortmond will likely be burned up in a speed duel with with all the ‘cheap speed’ horses in the huge field. American Pharoah, IMO, has by far, the better chance. Seems the longer he goes, the better he does. I predict he’ll win by 3 going-away lengths.
Past Performances for Dortmund and American Pharoah
#8) Dortmund - Kaleem Shah, Inc - Tr. Bob Baffert
http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/dortmund5044_3.pdf
#18) American Pharoah - Zayat Stables, LLC - Tr. Bob Baffert
http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/ampharoah5044.pdf
PPs of the other contenders can be found here (click on horse)
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
American Pharoah is a pace setter too. But he also finishes strongly. A quality shared with many of the great ones. The late great Ruffian and Barbaro ran that way.
http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/ampharoah5044.pdf
American Pharoah drew a tough post position for his running style.