Posted on 01/29/2015 11:01:22 AM PST by Red Badger
Maybe the smoking gun isn’t in a bathroom at Gillette Stadium. Maybe it’s in the laptop of a civil engineer in Washington, D.C.
One of the strangest twists in the already strange saga of deflate-gate is the sudden star turn of a man who runs a gambling website when he’s not doing his day job. Warren Sharp is a 36-year-old dad who loves numbers and algorithms, and decided to apply some statistics to the Patriots when he heard about the football deflation investigation. What he found sent ripples through the sports world and got a few other statisticians pretty upset.
It also may have implications beyond Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.
“Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”
According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams.
“Based upon the data we’ve collected and the probabilities, it definitely is extremely unlikely that their ability to hold onto the football would change so much and be as far away from the rest of the NFL,” Sharp said. “It’s extremely unlikely.”
We all know correlation does not mean causation, but ...
(Excerpt) Read more at sports.yahoo.com ...
.You mean CHALK!
++++
My guess it’s probably highest-quality magnesium carbonate for maximum sweat absorption and friction...not just plain CHALK.
His statistics are atrocious. Worse than Michael Mann.
much more obvious mess than it is worth the time to write out, but here are some analysis that hit the high points.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/your-guide-to-deflate-gateballghazi-related-statistical-analyses/
And
http://tomhayden3.com/2015/01/24/patriots/
There are more detailed ones available as well.
I heard that oregano does wonders...
Some noticed. I’d read the report already. It was junk.
It starts here and only gets worse:
“Yesterday I investigated whether or not the New England Patriots outperform expectations in bad weather.”
See previous post for more links.
The author of the original article did bad math and bad statistics on sloppy data...with a bunch of cherry-picking thrown in.
Even his star RB’s?............
Especially his star running backs.
On the other hand, while Green-Ellis didn’t fumble while with the Patriots, he also didn’t fumble in college.
And an under deflated will NOT roll far either!!!
Democrat.
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