Dumb Luck: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible.

slate.com ^ | Jan. 23 2015 | Warren Sharp

[Berlin_Freeper]

...One can clearly see the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays per fumble lost. The league average is 105 plays per fumble lost. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.

I spoke with a data scientist whom I know from work on NFLproject.com and sent him the data. He said:

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win.

[ICE-FLYER]

;)

[Berlin_Freeper]

Thanks for breaking my thread past 100 posts.
I always get a kick out of that :)

[MortMan]

The analysis may be top rate, but the fundamental assumption that fumbles are randomly distributed needs to first be proven, including in the case of the Patriots.

BTW - I am no supporter of the Pats. I grew up a Jets fan. LOL

[Berlin_Freeper]

There is no such assumption, otherwise we would be looking at a chart that showed all the teams as almost a single horizontal line. The skills, techniques and cheating are inherent in the counts themselves. That is why the cheating Patriots stick out like a big sore thumb.

[ICE-FLYER]

Happy to be of service :)

[Figment]

Loser

[timestax]

[Berlin_Freeper]

9 out of 10 FReepers agree, Trolls who get caught attempting to slam an article without bothering to read it are Losers.

[Berlin_Freeper]

I noticed the Pats like to talk about balls a lot when the fact is these are footballs.

What’s up with that??

Did I just say what’s UP with that?

Now we know what is up... Ick!

[stevie_d_64]

Well, you know some teams do have challenges that effect performance, it could be a blood flow issue...

They should talk to their doctor about this condition, and Viagra-Air may be the solution...

Do not drink alcohol, or operate a no-huddle offense without knowing how Viagra-Air effects your gameplan...

Seek medical help immediately if the team experiences an route of more than 40 points...

So be ready when the time is right...Talk to your doctor about Viagra-Air...

[HenpeckedCon]

“Bingo! I am a Giants’ fan, but I am also a math guy who doesn't like to see statistics being misused. Perhaps there are reasons other than cheating to account for the Patriots’ low fumble rate. Maybe Brady's quick, short passes and excellent decision-making allow him to get the ball out of his own hands quickly, thus reducing the number of strip-sacks, a very common means of turning the ball over. Maybe Belichick stresses ball security more than most, and makes that a priority when finalizing his roster.”

I will never understand the vitriol so many Giants fans have for Belichick. He single handily won you a Superbowl against the Bills.

[Paleo Conservative]

Paleo Conservative: P=nRT

lepton: You lost the V...which *may* also come into play.

Well I think I might have been just a little distracted when I posted that. I got married just about 7 hours later.

[timestax]

[lepton]

Congratulations!

[Clemenza]

Congrats again!

[MMaschin]

Concurring bump.

It's amazing to see the lengths some folks go to with this non-story.

I find it amazing the lengths some people will go to ignore simple facts - add that to the disgusting Alinsky tactics that those people use against others, who fail to ignore the facts.

[timestax]