Dustin Hoffman scored with rain man, Sean Pen With being mentally ill. Gay and lesbian stuff is big right now, but the big winner in Oscarland will be Selma, simply because of the topic.
I thought so too, but now I'm getting the impression that "race" is the new "homelessness", and sexuality is the new thing.
With no clear cut movie for THAT, I think the likely outcome is that they'll recognize Boyhood for the achievement it is.