Posted on 11/02/2014 4:28:10 PM PST by right-wing agnostic
By this point in an election year, when polls are coming in by the bucketload late in the evening, you can get a sense for which pollsters are taking fresh samples of public opinion and which are herding toward the conventional wisdom.
J. Ann Selzer, whose firm Selzer & Company conducts the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, is in the former group: She’s always been one to trust what her data is telling her. On Dec. 31, 2007, Selzer’s poll was among the first to show a large lead for Barack Obama in the Iowa Democratic caucuses — most other polls had a small edge for Hillary Clinton. But Selzer’s poll proved to almost exactly match Obama’s margin in the caucuses four days later.
In September this year, Selzer’s poll showed a 6 percentage-point lead for the Republican Joni Enrst in the Iowa Senate race, defying others that had shown the race as a tossup. Although an early October Selzer poll showed the Democrat Bruce Braley narrowing his deficit to just 1 point, the final Des Moines Register poll, released Saturday night, has Ernst up 51-44 — a 7-point advantage. Other polls of Iowa show Ernst ahead, on average, by a percentage point or two.
Of course, the polling average is usually a more reliable indicator than even the best polls. No poll is clairvoyant — even one that consistently rates as among the most accurate in the country, as Selzer’s does. Polls face inherent limitations because of sampling error, and even the best pollsters face challenges in getting voters to talk to them. If Ernst’s 7-point lead in Selzer’s poll represented the equivalent of a point spread, the FiveThirtyEight model would take Braley’s side of it.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
It looks like Ernst will win at this point. Colorado... well, perhaps the voter fraud just won’t cut it this time. Gardner is now tying Udall with women voters.
I am going to hesitantly predict a 51-52 victory at this point.
If there seems to be a momentum building for the Republicans could we win North Carolina, Kansas, and New Hampshire?
“I am going to hesitantly predict a 51-52 victory at this point.”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
If it’s 51, it is a virtual certainty that one of the weakling RINOs will be made an offer to flip that he or she can’t refuse.
It’s the will of the people after all, doncha know.
Let us just keep posting EVERYWHERE that the “landslide” will be “close” within 1-2% of voters so the communists; I mean the democrats don’t know how many votes to manufacture.
And don’t disclose the vote counts outside major fraud sites, I mean cities until the major fraud sites, I mean cities have certified and disclosed.
Forget polls. VOTE.
Still saying Kansas is a wild card. Massive number of undecideds and they do typically break against the incumbent.
New Hampshire, a poll now has Shaheen up by 2 at 48%, but I think it might be closer.
If Tillis wins, its a wave. If he fails, and I predict he will, this will a closer election than it ever should have been.
I think all three races will depend on turnout and that is sometimes hard to predict. Here is hoping.
I think all three races will depend on turnout and that is sometimes hard to predict. Here is hoping.
You are correct—turnout is key.
We have to speak to our families, friends and co-workers over the next two days. We have to help our fellow believers and church goers that their vote is needed this year to stave off evil in the land.
We have a country to save, and this is our last peaceful chance to do so.
Using the ‘Ernst Index’ of her being 7pts ahead instead of 1.2, you could extrapolate a ten-state Senate pickup.
Bloodbath.
Well my family, the three of use will be voting tomorrow and weather permitting I will be holding up a sign for governor LePage for an hour or so.
Polls in Maine are not open on the Monday before election day. The last day to request an absentee ballot was Thursday. Hopefully, you meant you would be voting on Tuesday.
Yes of course I meant Tuesday.
But I will be out holding a sign for an hour or so tomorrow,
Monday!
That is what I am thinking too!
Also with the gains expected in the House, we should never again hear the words Speaker Pelosi.
I hope voters in CT will vote Foley in (along with a few R state house members). I hope ME citizens will re elect Paul LePage.
I was surprised to learn LePage was TEA. VERY encouraging. ESAD, Stephen King.
Finally, the polls are going to show the real mood of the nation, not what the MSM wants it to be.
I think we go much better then just 51-52.
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