Krispy Kreme has been going strong in most of the south for over 50 years.... Fads are fads though. I am not saying Chipotle is going out of business, I am saying that they being cited as able to buck the market is a fad/trend that will not continue.
5-10 years from now, there will not be articles about how they can raise their prices while others cannot... because by then tastes will have changed and another company will be holding that spot and Chipotle will be like Olive Garden or any other number of established boring chains.
Yep, they WERE strong, then they grossly over expanded. At their height there were 2 or 3 DOZEN places in Tucson you could get KK, 4 actual stores, plus at 2 different sets of grocery store chains, and a coffee shop chain. And that situation wasn’t unique to here, they tried to capitalize on the fad by being everywhere, which meant they competed with themselves, which meant when the fad faded they were over extended. If they’d have only expanded here to their own stores (or only the grocery stores) they probably would have survived in the area.
Meanwhile Chipotle has been here 15 years and has 8 stores, include 3 in fairly distant suburbs. If they keep their growth smart 5 to 10 years they will still be able to raise their prices and survive. Because they’re offering something that’s good and unique. Subway style built before your eyes customized by you food is a solid market, it’s been working for Subway for a long time, and it’s working for Chipotle too. Good food made fast will always have a market. That’s been one of the big revolutions in the food market the last 20 years, first pushed by Subway and now embraced by a lot of “fast-casual” places. There’s a new understanding that fastfood doesn’t have to suck, that you can go to a place and get food in under 5 minutes that tastes pretty good, has a decent price, can actually be healthy, and doesn’t have to feel like it’s a factory mass produced product.
Which also separates them from Olive Garden and other boring chains. OG’s trouble is they are at best a mediocre sit down restaurant. The food’s not that great, the service is standard sit down, and the prices aren’t so good either, and they don’t really have anything that separates them from the market. There’s better food cheaper in identical atmosphere nearly everywhere.
The only thing that will really beat up Chipotle is if they lose separation. If another fast-casual Mexican place comes up that does their shtick better then they’ll be hurt. So far I’m not seeing it. The other FC Mexican places tend to focus on sea food, or they’re not as good, or they don’t have the “built on command” Subway style. Currently everybody is carving their own space, when there’s overlap is when there’s danger.