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I don't know if there has even been a successful break on the final day. The closest I can remember was (I think) Frankie Andreau who was away by himself fro a couple of laps and got caught in the last couple hundred meters.

The Champs de Elyses is restricted property for sprinters and making a pick out of this year's tour is as hard as any time I can remember. I'm still looking for news of what happened after Sagan knocked everyone down on Friday. It seems like there was going to be a little dust up ...maybe just rumor.

I think the consensus would have given tomorrow to Cavendish. Without him I think it looks like a toss up between Kittel and Greipel. I'm a Sagan fan, but something is missing in his spirit, it seems. Kristoff has been a surprise this year. That guy Navardauskas that took Stage 19 looked fast, but that was with the usual contenders on the tarmac. There are some wily old veterans there in Thomas Voekler and Jens Voigt and that guy John Degenkolb was right there in the early road stages. So was Coquard ...and then there's Renshaw and the Yellow Jersey, too. But I think Nibali will avoid the mix and enjoy his champagne.

Jeez I sound like Obama's press mouth trying to worm out of an answer, don't I?

If I'm standing in the casino with $50 of found money to throw at a long shot, I'd put it on Tejay. I'd like to see him jump away on that hairpin before the tunnel and hammer it home.