Did you note that only once since 1990 has Germany won their second group game?
So the result against Ghana should not have come as such a shock.
I just feel like the US squandered their chance to get out of the group. That was a MUST WIN game.
The scenario is still pretty good for Team USA. Obviously, beating Germany gets them through, as does a draw, or a POR-GHA draw.
After that, it comes down to goal difference - right now, they are +5 compared to Portugal and +2 compared to Ghana. Now, +2 of that gets wiped out automatically in a loss/win situation (since you have to win or lose by at least 1, after all), so we’d ironically need to be cheering for Portugal, otherwise we could get knocked out by Ghana for the third straight WC, despite having beaten them.
As far as USA-GER, Germany has no incentive to run up the score. If they get ahead 1-0, I can see them just parking the bus knowing that even a last-minute equalizer sees them win the group.
Best situation in POR-GHA: Portugal leading Ghana by 1 goal, late.
A narrow Portugal win won’t help Portugal, and the best Ghana would reasonably be ale to do is draw.
A 1-goal Ghana win would bring it to total goals scored, where USA is +1 over GHA right now. If Ghana wins by 2 or more, USA needs at least a draw against Germany; if the US loses to Germany by more than 1 goal, they need Portugal to draw Ghana or win by a small margin.
I still can’t believe that head-to-head isn’t the first tiebreaker, but the rules are the rules.
We’ll have to be real careful. I read someone this morning talking about how we should remember we could have drawn Panama and eliminated Mexico. But our own survival wasn’t on the line in that game.
It is just hard to believe that we would have played so well to not advance. But Ghana has played very well too.
There are so many results that can go various ways that though it feels safe, it’s not a certainty.
If you had told me before the World Cup began that after game 2, the USA would have 4 points, I would have taken it.
Cliche Time, that’s all. Kind of funny when you hear people say that.