The scenario is still pretty good for Team USA. Obviously, beating Germany gets them through, as does a draw, or a POR-GHA draw.
After that, it comes down to goal difference - right now, they are +5 compared to Portugal and +2 compared to Ghana. Now, +2 of that gets wiped out automatically in a loss/win situation (since you have to win or lose by at least 1, after all), so we’d ironically need to be cheering for Portugal, otherwise we could get knocked out by Ghana for the third straight WC, despite having beaten them.
As far as USA-GER, Germany has no incentive to run up the score. If they get ahead 1-0, I can see them just parking the bus knowing that even a last-minute equalizer sees them win the group.
Best situation in POR-GHA: Portugal leading Ghana by 1 goal, late.
A narrow Portugal win won’t help Portugal, and the best Ghana would reasonably be ale to do is draw.
A 1-goal Ghana win would bring it to total goals scored, where USA is +1 over GHA right now. If Ghana wins by 2 or more, USA needs at least a draw against Germany; if the US loses to Germany by more than 1 goal, they need Portugal to draw Ghana or win by a small margin.
I still can’t believe that head-to-head isn’t the first tiebreaker, but the rules are the rules.
The problem is Ghana has played much better than Portugal.
They will also have had an extra day of rest, and Portugal played in Manaus.
If Ghana scores early, Portugal realizes it’s over and probably gives up the ghost.