The 2 Cessna engine failures that preceded the 2 in Hawaii within 50 days are listed at http://aviation-safety.net/database/dblist.php?Event=ACEL
One was in Oregon March 5, 2003. The description can be found at http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20030305-0 including this cause:
“PROBABLE CAUSE: “Water contamination in the fuel system which resulted in a loss of engine power during the initial climb after takeoff, and the pilot’s inadequate pre-flight inspection. Trees were a factor.”
Sounds like ice, maybe.
The other was Sept 5, 2010 The description is at http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20100905-0 including this cause:
“The accident resulted from the creep rupture of one or more blades of the turbine compressor leading to failure of the engine in flight.
The causes of creep could not be determined. It can result from operating the engine over the temperature-threshold or non-detection during maintenance. “
The Oregon engine failure (ice?) happened at 1000 ft; the other one happened at 7000 feet 11 minutes into the flight in Central America.
According to http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/20131021_None_hurt_as_plane_makes_emergency_landing_on_Maui_highway.html there were 2 pilots on the first of the 2 Cessna engine failures in the Maui area within 50 days of each other. The 2 pilots were praised but never identified. Ever. The HI Department of Transportation declined to investigate the incident but the FAA and NTSB were investigating.
Photos of that incident are at the very bottom at http://www.thekathrynreport.com/2013_10_22_archive.html
My Google search for Mokulele Express flight 1770 pilots, cause of engine failure yielded no results within the past month so apparently the cause of the engine failure has not yet been reported.
However, maintenance sometimes doesn't happen, things break and mistakes and accidents do happen, so there is no such thing as totally safe. None the less, you are staking the deck in your favor by flying on a nice day in a well maintained Cessna Carravan with a professional pilot.
I'm not good a probability, but pondering the odds, what are the chances of all events coming together for her that day? Was it her time or did someone decide to end things early?
Either way, may she be resting peacefully in a better place.
THIS JUST IN ON FREEPMAIL:
The decision whether to attempt to recover the plane, for now, is out of the hands of Makani Kai Air.
If the NTSB decides to attempt to recover, and it is feasible, they will. After our NTSB has “released” the wreckage; either recovered or unrecovered, Makani Kai Air, their insurers and financiers can decide what to do with the wreckage.
If they abandon it on the ocean floor, I guess U.S. maritime law regarding salvage will become operative.
The NTSB is the independent federal agency responsible for investigating the Hawaii aircraft accident in which Fuddy died.
“The NTSB originated in the Air Commerce Act of 1926, in which the U.S. Congress charged the U.S. Department of Commerce with investigating the causes of aircraft accidents. Later, that responsibility was given to the Civil Aeronautics Board’s Bureau of Aviation Safety, when it was created in 1940.
“In 1967, Congress consolidated all transportation agencies into a new U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and established the NTSB as an independent agency placed within the DOT for administrative purposes. In creating the NTSB, Congress envisioned that a single organization with a clearly defined mission could more effectively promote a higher level of safety in the transportation system than the individual modal agencies working separately. Since 1967, the NTSB has investigated accidents in the aviation, highway, marine, pipeline, and railroad modes, as well as accidents related to the transportation of hazardous materials.
“In 1974, Congress reestablished the NTSB as a completely separate entity, outside the DOT, reasoning that “...No federal agency can properly perform such (investigatory) functions unless it is totally separate and independent from any other ... agency of the United States.” Because the DOT has broad operational and regulatory responsibilities that affect the safety, adequacy, and efficiency of the transportation system, and transportation accidents may suggest deficiencies in that system, the NTSB’s independence was deemed necessary for proper oversight. The NTSB, which has no authority to regulate, fund, or be directly involved in the operation of any mode of transportation, conducts investigations and makes recommendations from an objective viewpoint.” http://www.ntsb.gov/about/history.html
See http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/process.html and NTSB 830 which describes the regulatory process: http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?tpl=/ecfrbrowse/Title49/49cfr830_main_02.tpl
NTSB @NTSB
NTSB investigating Hawaii crash of Cessna 208 into ocean shortly after takeoff from Kalaupapa Airport.
10:32 PM Dec 11th
But, the lack of additional NTSB action three days after the accident already is disturbing.
No Preliminary finding has yet been issued, nor has the accident been added to the NTSB monthly report of aviation accidents.
http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/AccList.aspx?month=12&year=2013
Nor has it been added to the list of current investigations: http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/current.html
NTSB has issued no press releases: http://www.ntsb.gov/news/press_releases.html