[campaignPete R-CT]

NFC TIEBREAKERS #2 OF MANY

SF has large lead in DIV rec vs AZ. Hope for AZ?
assume SF loss to AZ and SEA (DIV loss) ... could lead to:

SF 10-6 3-3 DIV AZ 10-6 3-3 DIV

AZ would get the tiebreaker due to COMMON
AZ loss to PHIL was Uncommon loss to finish at 1-1 in Uncommon (vs 2-0 SF) and, therefore, AZ has clinched (14-game) COMMON vs SF

NFC head to head victories

AZ over CAR
CAR over SF
SEA over CAR

PHIL OVER AZ
DET over DAL
DET vs PHIL on 12/8
CHI vs PHIL on 12/22
CHI vs DAL on 12/9

DAL & PHIL have now both clinched tiebreaker with both SF & AZ (due to CONF rec [& PH h2h over AZ])

[each team has 4 non-CONF games. DAL & PHIL 1-3, SF & AZ 3 victories ... DAL & PH worse in non-CONF, better in CONF]

[campaignPete R-CT]

AFC TIEBREAKERS #1 OF MANY

BALT tiebreakers:

vs. PITT
split head—to-head
Balt can only get better DIV record in one scenario: at 8-8 if one of their wins is their final DIV game (leaving them 4-2), while PITT’s 8th loss is a DIV game (leaving them 3-3).

very unlikely. next tiebreaker is COMMON
same DIV teams have 14 common games, 2 uncommmon.
in the uncommon games, PITT is 0-2 and BALT is 1-1.
Therefore PITT has clinched common games.
(If they tie, and PITT is one-game-worse in uncommon, they are one-game-better in COMMON.)

FINAL ANALYSIS, PITT IS VERY CLOSE TO CLINCHING THE TIEBREAKER OVER BALT.


VERSUS CINCY
obvious, if BALT beats CINN in week 17 , to tie, BALT gets the tiebreaker due to head to head sweep.
if BALT lose to CINN in week 17, to create tie (very unlikely), CINN gets the tiebreaker. unless 2 of their final 3 losses are PITT and MINN. This would create a tie in DIV record and common and CONF ... and push the tiebreaker to SOV.

BALT VS. NYJ - MIAMI - TN - SD
the conf record is all important, therefore the teams with more non-conference losses have the advantage
MIAMI 3 non-conf losses
BALT 2
TENN 2
SD 1
NYJ 0

BALT BEATS MIAMI IN 2-WAY TIE DUE TO head to head, but 3-way tie goes to MIAMI (CONF REC)

BALT vs. TENN: could go to SOV
the 5 common games is currently:
BALT 3-2
TENN 2-1 with 2 to play (DEN AND HOUS)
THIS WILL BE AN INTERESTING ONE TO WATCH !!!

VS CLEVELAND (h2h is split)
CLE is 0-2 in uncommon with BALT (1-1), so CLE has COMMON GAMES. IF DIV rec ends up tie, CLE gets the tiebreaker.

BALT VS. SD
best SD can do is tie BALT for CONF rec

common games:
BALT 3-1 with 1 to go
SD 0-3 with 2 to go

therefore, BALT has clinced common and clinched the 2-way tiebreaker vs SD.

BUFF has tiebreaker over BALT due to h2h.
although BALT would have large lead to get the 3-way tiebreaker with BALT-SD-BUFF (conf rec)