bump for later
I no longer expect a big break - just mini-busts and -booms in a continuation of the long, slow grind-down into Argentina we are currently undergoing. The America of 2023 will be unrecognizable to us today - but we won't likely have to suffer the shock of seeing it happen all at once.
Preppers’ PING!!
1) credit crunch = increased difficulty in obtaining loans
2) tight money = higher interest rates
3) monetary contraction = contraction of the supply of fiat money
These lead to crises:
1) bubbles bursting, such as real estate, banking, savings and loans, financial, energy.
2) increased bankruptcies, insolvencies, defaults, and failures, such as banks, large corporations, big cities, states.
3) crashes, panics and bank runs.
These are the start of the bust phase of the contraction phase of the boom-bust cycle caused by Keynesianism.
In the past, the market collapses were preceded by wild swings over periods of weeks or days before the crash. But nothing every repeats the same. This time the wild swings will happen in a period of seconds or minutes, and within a couple of hours it will all be ashes. Fundamentally, the collapse will be a black swan event that is non-predictable and outsized by definition.
BTTT for later...
I personally am looking at a trifecta to occur:
* A financial collapse or media-driven panic;
* Race riots sparked by another high-profile incident;
* Another mass casualty event involving guns.
If those happen, either in rapid succession or all at once, watch the official response from the regime. That will seal the deal, so to speak.
What will be the catalyst?
For the USSR, the money ran out when they couldn’t borrow anymore internationally, when their satellite countries began to ignore them, when the bureaucracy become so overbearing it couldn’t even function.
I doubt they want utter ruin but Putin has been biding his time just waiting for hussein to royally screw up.