Posted on 11/05/2012 7:49:27 PM PST by ConservativeInPA
Dick Morris just said on FoxNews that Romney will win PA. A lot of people think he is nuts. A lot of people think PA will disappoint again. But, here are the reasons Romney will win PA.
In the past week, Romney, the GOP and PACs have dumped more than $5 million into ads. Obama's coffers are empty. Recently the Obama campaign had to go to Bank of America for a loan. The Democrat response to the Republican spend in PA has been $650,000.
The Democrats have been caught flat footed. They have not been expecting this end game.
If we follow Bill Clinton around the state today, we can see the areas that the Obama campaign is worried about. Philadelphia - this is purely a GOTV effort. Philadelphia is going for Obama by 83%. That is what we are fighting against. That and perhaps Montgomery County, another Clinton destination today. Montgomery county is liberal, but much less liberal in 2010 than 2008. Clinton is going to Montgomery County to stop the bleeding. Clinton also had Lakawanna County (Scranton) on this itinerary today. This is an area that is heavily influenced by coal and natural gas (Marcellus Shale). Natural gas was not an issue in 2008. It is today. Over 240,000 natural gas related jobs have been created in Pa since Obama took office. Add to that, the United Mine Workers of America are sitting out this election and Lakawanna county is a completely different beast this year.
Lastly, Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) was one of Bill's destinations today. It isn't 2008. In 2010, Allegheny County went for Republican Tom Corbett (narrowly). They now have a track record of voting a Republican and the Obama campaign knows it. This is another stop the bleeding trip for Bill.
The one place that Bill didn't make it too was Delaware County. Delaware County used to be a Republican county. My guess is that the Obama campaign knows that it is trending in that direction again and Bill's time would be better spent in Montgomery County.
Don't buy the Democrat line that Romney is going into PA out of desperation. Romney has been to PA ten times since his campaign begun. It will be 11 times tomorrow. Ryan has also been in PA multiple times.
Now for what really makes me think Romney wins PA. Between 2008 and 2010 elections, the 67 counties of PA averaged 11% more in Republican votes. Many counties are 60 and 70% Republican. I think this is enough to compensate for Philadelphia, Lakawanna, Montgomery and Allegheny Counties. See the chart below.
Right now PA feels like 2010 on steroids. In 2010, Pa voted for a Republican governor, state house, state senate and increased the number is Republican US house members beyond a majority and elected a conservative US senator. That momentum has not been lost, it has only increased because PA really clings to guns and religion.
I think you need to fill in the lower left hand corner of the T this year. Greene, Washington, Somerset and Fayette counties are going for Romney this year. I think that is one of the biggest differences this year. I spent a lot of time out that way for work earlier in the year. I was really surprise how much Obama is really hated. But then again, I was with a lot of natural gas workers.
Philly can be offset, but you need an arising from West PA like never before. Maybe.
But then I believe Ohio is in the bag for Romney so this is all sideshow for me.
Good thread, CIPA !
It is purely a defensive mood by the Obama campaign. It will be interesting to hear how the Romney rally goes tomorrow, I am guessing it will be at the airport. I don’t have high expectations since it is a work day and it is hard enough to fit work and standing line at the polls into the day.
God bless the bitter clingers in the red T of PA.
I hope you are right. I have my doubts about Montgomery and Delaware counties. I am just hoping it is close. That should be enough to allow other counties to make up the difference for the Philadelphia vote.
thanks
many scenarios....
make it easy folks....GET US PA OR OHIO!
g'night all . . .
Mitt Romney is a pretty shrewed politician. Remember how low he played it in the summer months of the campaign and then the debates arrived and “Wham!” He completely blind sided Obama.
I think he did the same thing in PA....acting like he was conceding the state to the point that Obama took it for granted and committed money elsewhere and then....”Wham” Romney sunk 5 million dollars of add buys into the state and began a full court press to get the votes.
Don’t you see, Obama was fighting for Ohio when Romney was really fighting in PA. Don’t get me wrong, Romney wants Ohio badly too but, I think Romney really shocked the Obama campaign with this PA maneuver. I bet Romney’s ground team was quietly workig PA all the while as well.
Again, don’t under estimate Romney as politician. He knows how to read people, probes for thir soft spots, and knows how to twist it in when he has to. No one becomes a hugely successful business man without these skills. If PA goes to Romney, it will be considered a political move of brilliance.
Polls close in PA at 8pm. Exit polling will certainly know who has won long before that unless its incredibly close... Or the MSM refuses to call even knowing Romney has it won in hopes that some western state not go to Romney as expected.
I full expect by 5-6pm tomorrow the press will know the winner but won’t call until polls close. FL being in 2 time zones certainly will not get called early like it was in 2000 if its clear Romney is up. If its close the MSM may play a little 2000 trying to supress panhandle vote. But in reality FL won’t be close.
Be ready for scorched earth out of the WH. They know they have this lost. This is all about stemming down ticket hemmoraging as much as possible.
I'd agree with that. I remember the day when campaigns were over the weekend before the election, but with the 24 hour news cycle and immediate internet news blasts, I guess it never ends today.
A lot, IMO, is an enthusiasm/psychological thing. It is one thing to see the candidate you are voting for on TV, and another to actually be there, and be in an exciting environment. Sort of like playing a football game in an empty yard vs a full stadium.
And even if the people their aren’t undecided, they get excited, maybe volunteer or at least talk. You get regional news coverage, and then in smaller towns you probably DO get people not for sure voting, because it is an “event” in those places to go see a candidate.
Yes, yes! Thank you for clarifying how that wonderful 5% was conglomerated in the poll results. I just thought that was such striking, and interesting, awesome news that to me was very meaningful to the real picture. Thank you for finishing the facts! God be with us. Off now for night time prayers!
I will be voting tomorrow!
Good night folks. I am going to pray myself to sleep and get up early to vote.
I sure hope they do! It’d be nice if Buck wasn’t the only Suburban county that flipped(and it very well may I hope!), and our neighbors can join us in on being red like the T!
Just voted in Montgomery. Lib lawyer in front of me complaining about them asking to show his ID. I offered mine up freely and sort of in your face. Pole workers were cool about it.. I think they thought he was a jerk.
Anyway, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!!
We need to offset these weenies in the suburbs of Philly if we are to win the state!
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