Posted on 11/05/2012 7:49:27 PM PST by ConservativeInPA
Dick Morris just said on FoxNews that Romney will win PA. A lot of people think he is nuts. A lot of people think PA will disappoint again. But, here are the reasons Romney will win PA.
In the past week, Romney, the GOP and PACs have dumped more than $5 million into ads. Obama's coffers are empty. Recently the Obama campaign had to go to Bank of America for a loan. The Democrat response to the Republican spend in PA has been $650,000.
The Democrats have been caught flat footed. They have not been expecting this end game.
If we follow Bill Clinton around the state today, we can see the areas that the Obama campaign is worried about. Philadelphia - this is purely a GOTV effort. Philadelphia is going for Obama by 83%. That is what we are fighting against. That and perhaps Montgomery County, another Clinton destination today. Montgomery county is liberal, but much less liberal in 2010 than 2008. Clinton is going to Montgomery County to stop the bleeding. Clinton also had Lakawanna County (Scranton) on this itinerary today. This is an area that is heavily influenced by coal and natural gas (Marcellus Shale). Natural gas was not an issue in 2008. It is today. Over 240,000 natural gas related jobs have been created in Pa since Obama took office. Add to that, the United Mine Workers of America are sitting out this election and Lakawanna county is a completely different beast this year.
Lastly, Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) was one of Bill's destinations today. It isn't 2008. In 2010, Allegheny County went for Republican Tom Corbett (narrowly). They now have a track record of voting a Republican and the Obama campaign knows it. This is another stop the bleeding trip for Bill.
The one place that Bill didn't make it too was Delaware County. Delaware County used to be a Republican county. My guess is that the Obama campaign knows that it is trending in that direction again and Bill's time would be better spent in Montgomery County.
Don't buy the Democrat line that Romney is going into PA out of desperation. Romney has been to PA ten times since his campaign begun. It will be 11 times tomorrow. Ryan has also been in PA multiple times.
Now for what really makes me think Romney wins PA. Between 2008 and 2010 elections, the 67 counties of PA averaged 11% more in Republican votes. Many counties are 60 and 70% Republican. I think this is enough to compensate for Philadelphia, Lakawanna, Montgomery and Allegheny Counties. See the chart below.
Right now PA feels like 2010 on steroids. In 2010, Pa voted for a Republican governor, state house, state senate and increased the number is Republican US house members beyond a majority and elected a conservative US senator. That momentum has not been lost, it has only increased because PA really clings to guns and religion.
Here’s hoping!!
>> Recently the Obama campaign had to go to Bank of America for a loan.
No kidding.
I wonder if BofA asked the vendors in Charlotte for a credit reference for the Obamao campaign.
Bronco Bama prolly made BofA an offer they couldn’t refuse...
I pray Pennsylvanians vote their future — especially their energy future — and not their history!
This state, and in particular Montgomery County, will be in The R Column by the end of the night.
How does mid-term turn out compare with presidential election turn-out generally overall and was 2010 different in this aspect?
Ann Coulter was exploding with good news and facts dripping with encouraging victory!
Also, in Iowa, I heard a report on Fox by Ann, I believe,that in the state polling, 5 respondents would not say which man they were voting for. This was taken as not good for Obama, interpreted that voters in a liberal state don’t want to be thought as racist. Excellent observation.
I never understood how politicians or rallies increased their votes. I mean the ones that drive there, go through security, and wait awhile until the politician finally shows up seem like the ones that’ll vote in any case. Anyone understand how these help?
Precisely, last des moines register poll shows obama up 47 to 42%. They stated 5% refused to answer who they are voting for. Presumably romney voters who wanted to be quiet.
Well researched and well written. Thanks for posting, backs my feeling on the state. My parents live in Lancaster county.
Precisely, last des moines register poll shows obama up 47 to 42%. They stated 5% refused to answer who they are voting for. Presumably romney voters who wanted to be quiet.
Check Fayette! We’ve been on the move!
or Ohio...both states in the Eastern Time zone...
will we know by 5pm PST?....
Thanks for the information! Gingrich is very confident we will win Pa. and Ohio! Looks like Romney threw a curve ball to Obama. WhooHoo!
Barring massive ENEmedia sabotage, I’d think not much later than 8pm PST
The mid-term turnout was lower than the presidential election turnout. I think what the results in 2010 in PA shows that there were a lot or once and done (youth) voters for Obama in 2008. By the way, PA is the second oldest state in the union after FL. There are a lot of seniors that vote in every election, even of it is just for township commissioner. I think the vote in 2010 also showed an intensity that hasn't been there before. There was no Tea Party in 2008. There was in 2010. Contrary to what Democrats claim, the Tea Party is not dead, at least not in PA. Republican senatorial candidate, Tom Smith, is a Tea Party guy. He is polling even with incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. The Tea Party folks haven't been protesting, but they are still organized. They are doing the typical conservative thing; quietly voting.
The local news in Pittsburgh announced a few days ago that Clinton would be in town today, and they said that it would require tickets for the event which was held at Market Square, downtown. That's an open square, not all that big, in the middle of the city.
This morning, the same TV news station announced that even though tickets were previously required, anyone showing up could probably get in.
Even the thousands of government workers at State, Federal and Local government in Downtown couldn't request enough tickets sends a big message, IMHO.
The bigger message is what's Obama doing shooting his biggest gun in Clinton in a supposedly solid blue state like Pennsylvania, and in a solid 'Blue' city like Pittsburgh, the day before the election?
We could, unless its close.
The local news in Pittsburgh announced a few days ago that Clinton would be in town today, and they said that it would require tickets for the event which was held at Market Square, downtown. That's an open square, not all that big, in the middle of the city.
This morning, the same TV news station announced that even though tickets were previously required, anyone showing up could probably get in.
Even the thousands of government workers at State, Federal and Local government in Downtown couldn't request enough tickets sends a big message, IMHO.
The bigger message is what's Obama doing shooting his biggest gun in Clinton in a supposedly solid blue state like Pennsylvania, and in a solid 'Blue' city like Pittsburgh, the day before the election?
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