Posted on 11/05/2012 6:08:44 AM PST by George N
At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll I think a lot of the tooth mashing over the Dem leaning polling samples is off. I hope I'm wrong but I think the outrage is mostly a result of a lack of technical understanding. It's always dangerous when amateur analysts start tearing into poll internals. This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim. There's a reason pollsters historicLly do not weight by party ID.
That doesn't mean that Dems will outperform or even match 2008 turnout. They won't. But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year. You'll notice that in most polls where Romney leads big amongst indies the party ID gap is the most favorable for Dems. When the indie vote is closer the party ID is tighter. Again, when GOP leaning indies call themselves Republicans they tighten party ID. When they call thenselves indies Romney wins indies bi but suffers in party ID.
I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year. Bu it doesn't change he sxientific math. Pollsters know with fair certainty what the sex/age/racial composition of the electorate will be. So when you weight that way and get a scientifically representative sample the top line number will be right. At least with the 95% lvl of confidence.
This isn't to say a massive GOP turnout couldn't fly under theradar or that pollsters don't struggle with urnout models and intensity. This is gonna be a close election but the polls point to a soight Obama edge. Let's not fool ourselves. We need an upset.
That doesn't mean that Dems will outperform or even match 2008 turnout. They won't. But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year. You'll notice that in most polls where Romney leads big amongst indies the party ID gap is the most favorable for Dems. When the indie vote is closer the party ID is tighter. Again, when GOP leaning indies call themselves Republicans they tighten party ID. When they call thenselves indies Romney wins indies bi but suffers in party ID.
I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year. Bu it doesn't change he sxientific math. Pollsters know with fair certainty what the sex/age/racial composition of the electorate will be. So when you weight that way and get a scientifically representative sample the top line number will be right. At least with the 95% lvl of confidence.
This isn't to say a massive GOP turnout couldn't fly under theradar or that pollsters don't struggle with urnout models and intensity. This is gonna be a close election but the polls point to a soight Obama edge. Let's not fool ourselves. We need an upset.
At least you know what’s coming. But your ignorance is showing. You give far to much credit to the accuracy opand intelligence of the pollsters. Take 2010 or 1980. Now to go pop some pop corn and IBTZ.
BS
nope, no troll here
Over sampling is the LEAST of the polls problems.
For your entertainment, Freepers:
MSNBC on the night of the Wisconsin Recall leading with their TOO CLOSE TO CALL crap and quickly realizing their over-sampled Dim polls were wrong. (But then cherry-picking results that were favorable to Zero from the SAME poll.)
ENJOY!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pchwcD4IPzs
Then why do some polls are sampling D+1, while others are at D+11?
Sounds to me like they simply don’t have a clue.
Turnout is key. If Republicans and conservatives are as angry as we make ourselves out to be, then we have the numbers to flip this election. If that motivation is flagging, then we were never in the game to start with.
We’ll know very soon.
Thanks for warning us about amateur analysts with your amateur analysis.
You’ve made exactly two (2!) posts since you joined FR in 2007. This kind of strains your credibility here.
So I lack understanding and I am dangerous to question a poll of North Carolina that is D+13?
Among the things she told us:
*Public pollsters heavily oversample urban areas, and therefore de facto get more "Dems" even when they aren't identified as Ds.
*Public pollsters make up samples they "assume" are right, but have very little experience anywhere outside of the beltway.
*Public pollsters, due to the larger samples, employ people who are NOT pollsters but simply questioners. The result is, she said, they get quite lazy. They don't probe to get the real sentiment that will affect the vote (and therefore MAKE the vote) but they accept the first answer given. Likewise, this laziness translates into a tendency at the end of the polling time (out of frustration) to take whomever they get and label that person "a Hispanic," or an "over 40" or whatever. She was adamant that not just political internal pollsters but that corporate pollsters HAVE to be accurate, while the big firms can be close on some, hit on one or two, and tout the one or two they hit on and ignore the five they miss on.
Do you drive a Subaru by chance?
Did Obama just have back to back +30,000 rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania? No.
The media’s spinning all kinds of garbage, Jim Cramer’s seriously suggesting Obama will pick up Georgia, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina.
That’s blatant propaganda on their part. Who cares what their “polls” have to say?
More than likely a prius or a bicycle.
Hard to accept an analysis by one who can’t be bothered to proofread their own post. Sloppy composition.
‘Teeth mashing.” Indeed.
I am just going on anecdotal information but when you live in a small town you can definitely get a feel for what is going on.
Obama voters are not energized. They have no signs, they have no bumper stickers.
Many former Obama voters are planning not to vote rather then vote for Romney.
Romney voters are eager to vote, proud if they have already voted.
You can tell who probably voted for Obama because they don’t say who they voted for, Romney voters are proud.
On a last note, even college students aren’t all in love with the Revolutionary this time.
Hard to accept an analysis by one who can’t be bothered to proofread their own post. Sloppy composition.
‘Teeth mashing.’ Indeed.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.