Net result?
Certainly Jim Rogers would be saddened to hear this.
$1,00,000 loaves of bread, but the good news is there will be plenty available at that price.
There is currently no oversupply of Corn, maize or wheat.
Cattle herd levels in Texas are very very low, due to the 100 year drought we experienced 1 year ago. It will take 5-10 years for the cattle herd levels to recover.
Now, there are feed grains that can rapidly outstrip demand.
Wheat, maize, corn can recover quickly.
Chicken & pork production can recover quickly. Cattle cannot. Cows typically have single offspring and a long gestation period. Herd levels recover slowly.
There have been price run-ups, but it is also tied to fuel, fertilizer and transportation costs.
AND the seed licensing mess concerning PVPA, title V, and patented species have made it an expensive legal nightmare. Seed licensing law is not simple nor cheap.
Over a period of a year or two, commodities in general will hold their value in relation to devalued currency and their cost of production.
This looks like an advert for short-sell gambling. Good luck with that!
Net result?
A vortex.
This writer is arguing contrary to the current pronouncements of Goldman Sachs and the significance is that if this author is correct we are going to see a huge drag on the world economy with no engine anywhere to pull it out of the vortex. Europe is on the verge of disintegration or, at best, life-support and the United States is hurtling toward not just taxaggedon but a very real fiscal crisis.
The only real remedy for the American problem is growth but growth is not to be found anywhere in the world. To the contrary, Europe and China might produce drag rather than growth. I am sure the rest of the world is looking at the United States and fearing that we will be the drag.
If we are fortunate enough to have a Romney take office we might somehow emerge from a time of pain with our political and economic system relatively intact. Nevertheless, Romney will get the blame for any hard times and will be unable, unlike Obama, to blame his predecessor. If Obama keeps his office or if events simply overwhelm Romney, we will probably lose our precious and unique legacy.
In other words we are talking about our fundamental liberties, not just our standard of living, being swept away by an economic tidal wave.
I wouldn’t like to be in the prediction position when it comes to agricultural commodities because weather reigns.
Besides growing demand it was weather that sparked the run up in prices. One day there is a beautiful crop the next day it is gone or it can be slow and agonizing as it was this summer in the corn belt.