Since InTrade requires that “investors” actually purchase shares and trade them, for real money, no one in the US can participate any longer. So, the odds are driven by people outside the US. Having lived overseas for many years, I don’t believe folks in other countries just don’t understand the subtleties of our politics. They certainly don’t “get” the electoral college and our form of federalism. I know, for instance, that Israelis are convinced that Obama can’t lose.
Sorry, I meant to write “I don’t believe folks in other countries understand the subtleties of our politics.” Ignore the double negative.
Two weeks ago I went to the site with the intent of buying contracts. The registration was a nightmare and included asking me to send a copy of my passport. I’m not doing that and my guess is most good American conservatives share my feelings causing the market to not reflect the true feelings of most in the USA.
You nailed it perfectly. Since Americans can’t use Intrade this is about as insightful as Pravda. I don’t understand why anyone pays attention to this; it’s like taking polls of Europeans only.
Two words... george soros