You nailed it perfectly. Since Americans can’t use Intrade this is about as insightful as Pravda. I don’t understand why anyone pays attention to this; it’s like taking polls of Europeans only.
Passport needed?
Isn’t that gambler disenfranchisement?
Americans cannot legally use it. I’ve noticed that it more or less tracks Nate Silvers’ prediction percentages.
Bottom line is who cares.. They had Kerry at 90% on Election Day 2004.