[scooby321]

Plus 12 and he is getting killed?

[Elpasser]

Romney/Ryan are going to win. The enthusiasm among Repubs, coupled with the disappointment among Ind’s and Dems, is palpable.

I know several relatives and friends who voted for Obama and now virulently oppose him. I don’t know ANYONE who voted for McCain but has since changed his mind.

Using the 2008 party ID models, particularly after the 2010 “shellacking” and the tanking economy, is flat out absurd.

[Obadiah]

Thanks for posting. In searchable and infamous focus groups sessions of Independents, by people such as Frank Luntz, you can witness Independents who are seemingly incapable of making a decision. I think these people are loathe to attach themselves to any decision that pollsters present to them. While the +12% is likely indicative of where things are, I firmly believe that as the November day of reckoning draws near that you will see Independents and Undecideds break sharply for Romney & Ryan. I think Obama and Axelrod know this.

[STJPII]

While I’m heartened by this, I suspect the Hispanic/AA turnout will exceed the election number for all the above except, 2008.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Frankly, the way Independents go is, I think, a better indicator than almost anything else. This is because Independents are the most representative slice of America. An "independent" can be anything - left, right, white, black, rich, poor, whatever. The term is just a catch-all to describe someone who isn't a D or an R. Ds and Rs tend to cluster around certain personality/demographic/economic types. Independents may include these as well, but balance it out with everything else.

If Romney's leading with the Is at +12, he's going to smash Obama.

[taxcontrol]

And this is EXACTLY what the GOP-e look at as the entire picture. Thus, they determine that if the GOP is going to win an election, they must put everything into what appears to be a moderate candidate. The problem with that view is that it does not take into account the number of the base that either stays home or does not vote for their moderate candidate.

The analysis that NEEDs to be done in addition to the “independents”, is an analysis of the base and their enthusiasm to support the candidate.

The ONLY reason McCain received the number of votes that he did was because of Gov Palin on the ticket. But the GOP-e see her and conservatives as a liability not as the motivated base.

[kidd]

Linear regression of your information shows that if Romney is +12 with Independents, he will win by 4%-10%.

With an energized GOP, and a loss of enthusiasm from students, I tend to think it’ll be closer to 10% than 4%.

Anything above 9% is landslide territory.