Posted on 09/24/2012 1:22:03 PM PDT by Adriatic Cons
A new poll from the Civitas Institute found that the Democratic ticket of President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden is 4 percentage points ahead of the Republican slate — presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.
The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 18-19 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent. Asked if the election were held today who they would vote for, 49 percent chose Obama/Biden and 45 percent chose Romney/Ryan. (This is the first 2012 Civitas Poll to include the vice presidential candidates.)
I think the projections of a huge drop-off by blacks are mostly wishful thinking. The drumbeat is daily on ‘black media’ that ‘we need to defend our guy against those whites errr I mean Republicans.’ The Dems get what must be billions of dollars in free advertising/GOTV-pushing on black radio, etc., because the DJs come on between songs and urge support.
I hope you’re right of course, but I think the biggest drop-off among blacks, and it won’t be that significant, will be among the young (where I think we’ll see the real drop in turnout across all races). But overall if black turnout is less than 95% of what it was in 2008, I’ll be a little surprised.
Apparently they’re sending Biden to Asheville and Charlotte next week, so at the very least they’re keeping a toe in the water.
Asheville is 99% D, so that is a Gotv visit that may draw a crowd. Charlotte is a 2 mm metro, so they may get more than the 600 people that showed up last time Joe came to NC.
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