Civitas Poll: Obama, Biden Lead Romney, Ryan in NC 49% - 45% (Taken 9/18-9/19)

Civitas Poll ^ | 9/24/12 | Civitas Poll

[Adriatic Cons]

A new poll from the Civitas Institute found that the Democratic ticket of President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden is 4 percentage points ahead of the Republican slate — presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.

The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 18-19 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent. Asked if the election were held today who they would vote for, 49 percent chose Obama/Biden and 45 percent chose Romney/Ryan. (This is the first 2012 Civitas Poll to include the vice presidential candidates.)

[fatman6502002]

Another ridiculous sample D45/R33/I22

[LS]

Of course we don’t know what actual votes are. I’m making a couple of assumptions: no Republicans will vote for Obama, and few, if any, Democrats will vote for Romney! So, if purely by numbers the GOP is up in the red counties outside the MOE and holding in the blue counties, we should be in good shape.

[LS]

Wrong: I did not call OH for McCain based on "early voting." I cited Montgomery County polls that showed him up in our county by 4. Those were robopolls, but my county chairman had great confidence in them. I never once looked at absentee ballots (if I had, I would have seen warning signs). ALL I'm looking at this time are absentees. Don't take my word for it: do your own homework. Plenty of people have posted the county websites on FR.

But you're free to think what you want, and be as negative/"realistic" as you choose. When I see polls that reflect the OH 36-34-30 OH splits in D/R/I, then I'm happy to accept whatever they say.

[maxwellsmart_agent]

This time around the polls are going to be shown for what they are. They all have Obama winning. Wait until November 6.

[MitchellC]

Obama’s campaign has folded their tent and left the state.

No, they haven't. They at the very least are still airing lots of ads on the radio. (No idea about TV because I don't watch much of it.)

[MitchellC]

Calm down, kids. Civitas is a good conservative group in NC. The poll came out today and it is newsworthy. Not all of us want to stick our heads into the sand.

That said, I seriously doubt that Obama will win NC, but when you look at the crosstabs, you see that Obama has significantly shored up support among Dems (who still have a strong registration advantage in NC) since their last poll after holding the DNC here. Seems realistic enough in that respect.

However, their turnout model is based on 2008’s or thereabouts. Naturally, after 2010 we all have our doubts about that but I'm wondering what people think the turnout model ought to be - I mean come on, it certainly shouldn't be based on 2010. So just take a deep breath, understand that this is probably just the worst case scenario based on recent precedent, and admit that there's still work to be done to win this damn thing.

[MitchellC]

So how long have the absentee ballot requests been under way in OH? Id there a website that tracks all of this info by county, etc.? (Civitas is doing it for NC here)

[MitchellC]

Party registration in NC as of today:

R- 31%
D- 43%
I- 26%

[MitchellC]

Uh, no. Wrong group. NC Civitas is funded by conservative NC millionaire Art Pope.

[snarkytart]

Being a good conservative group doesn’t mean their a solid and good pollster. Their samples are insane.

[1035rep]

Rasmussen has North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 45%

[MitchellC]

A senior fundraiser in the NC Republican machine just told me that Obama pulled out of NC over the weekend.

As of today I'm still hearing frequent Obama ads on 'urban' radio stations. Perhaps this is the last of an ad buy?

They weighed their poll like the leftist pollsters to see what would happen and to draw Obama back to NC to spend money.

That could backfire, as by that logic it might draw Romney into blowing resources here.

There is NO enthusiasm for Obama in 2012 in NC - none!

Yeah, I don't see much enthusiasm for Obama either, outside of blacks (from who, I am willing to predict, we will not see a major drop-off in turnout from 2008). I'm seeing a slow and steady increase in Romney bumper stickers, but it certainly isn't 'everywhere.'

I hope Obama spends a lot of money here. Several of my friends work in the TV business and would enjoy the year end bonuses!

I'd rather delight in the last few weeks of the campaign, watching Obama have to spread his money to PA... MI... MN... CT... :)

[MitchellC]

Their samples are insane.

Then what turnout model would you use for NC, if not 2008, and how would you come to those numbers?

[LS]

I think about a month.

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

I think “pulled out” refers to the ground game of calling and knocking on doors.

The urban stations have a limited demographic and they charge less for their ads than, let’s say WRAL 101.5.

The fact that they are spending time and money projecting a guilt trip on their base confirms what I hear, that AME and Baptist ministers are saying that black Christians cannot vote for a Mormon or a gay-marriage advocate, so, don’t vote this year as a protest. (Sound familiar?)

Also, the Governor’s race is a done deal with McCrory +15 and no Senate race this year. Re-districting has made most House races easy for R’s.

BTW, I registered as a Democrat when Jesse Helms asked conservatives to register D to vote in the primaries.
There are a lot of residual “Jesse-crats” left in NC, which helps the skew. Rush advocated this in the 2008 primary as part of “Operation Chaos”. Also, I would bet that since they changed the primary rules to allow Independents to vote in EITHER primary, many Independents are very conservative.

[LibLieSlayer]

Then this poll is crazy because it is wrong and no conservative would ever release the data if it were so wrong. He should have redone the poll and fixed their internal screwups. There is no way this poll is correct and November 6th wil prove it.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

IOW our side started lying too. I do not agree with that and the day that we embrace lies to win is the very day we turn into democrats. Lies are the terrain of satan and best avoided... there be monsters in them waters.

LLS

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

Maybe not lying, but using the registration numbers without accounting for the Jesse-crats that are very conservative but strategically registered as D’s.

At the peak of Jesse’s power, and before I’s were allowed to vote in either primary, about 70% of NC was registered D. That has not completely unwound, yet.

[Gay State Conservative]

Party registration in NC as of today: R- 31% D- 43% I- 26%

Where are those figures from? Polling firms? The state?

[Fresh Wind]

Poll troll.