If Lincoln had walked away from the slave states, WWI would have included a Civil War like blood bath with the slave south and the industrial north allied variously with England and Germany during the First World War. Germany attempted to get little Mexico to soak off US forces during WWI, they would certainly have done the same with anyone else they could have.
The successful suppression of the rebellion prevented what could likely be a string of wars between various rump states.
I don’t think so.
Even if the impossible had happened and the confederacy had attained official recognition I doubt that they would have lasted long. They had a proven track record of being liars and thieves so no country would ever be able to trust them.
They craved the same territories as the union so conflict with them would be inevitable. They were like the proverbial grasshopper - enjoying the fruits of other’s labors so without any infrastructure to speak of they would be at the mercy of any number of interested predators.
I suspect that the Brits would be first in line to dispose of the slavocrats and reap the spoils.
Now that is an interesting observation. The only flaw in it is that it presupposes that Arch Duke Ferdinand would have still gotten shot in this alternate reality, but assuming all else stayed the same, it is quite possible that you may have a point. Of course, it also overlook the possibility that with a smaller USA, we wouldn't have gotten involved in that European war in the first place.
Woodrow Wilson might not even have become President. Hmmm... I think it's too chaotic to predict any of that with any degree of certainty.
The successful suppression of the rebellion prevented what could likely be a string of wars between various rump states.
I dunno, do we fight any wars with Canada? The two nations may have just gotten along fine. I think Slavery would have lingered for many decades longer, but I think eventually the tide of public opinion would have turned against it even in the South. After Mechanical farming equipment was developed, Slavery would have become far less lucrative, and the Southern Social Aristocratic elite would have eventually turned up their nose against it.
It probably would have taken far longer for Blacks to get equal rights, but I think it would have still happened. Of course, in this alternative universe, there is a good chance that neither of us would have been born.
I don't know if you can say that for sure. For all we know events could have changed history enough that the first and second world wars wouldn't have happened. But I do believe that a separation as a result of the war would have led to future wars between the U.S. and the Confederacy, and that those who think that the two countries would have eventually reunified are just kidding themselves. Separation would have been permanent, hostile, and a drain on both countries.